Jon Jones vs Ciryl Gane Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for UFC 285 (Jones Earns Another Belt)

Larry Rupp
Jon Jones vs Ciryl Gane betting preview for UFC 285, including predictions, odds and best bets.
Jon Jones vs Ciryl Gane betting preview for UFC 285, including predictions, odds and best bets. / AP Photos/Michael Wyke

Jones vs Gane Fight Info, Date & Time

UFC 285 — Main Event Heavyweight Championship Bout
Jon Jones (26-1-0, 10 KOs) vs. Ciryl Gane (11-1-0, 5 KOs)
Date: Saturday, March 4, 2023
Fight Time: This will be the final fight on the main card, which begins at 10 p.m. ET.
Venue: T-Mobile Arena — Las Vegas, NV
Coverage: ESPN, PPV

Jones vs Gane Odds & Prop Bets

All UFC 285 odds, lines and prop bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Jon Jones: (-156)
- Ciryl Gane: (+132)

Method of Victory:
- Jones by KO/TKO: (+460)
- Jones by Points: (+195)
- Jones by Submission: (+550)
- Gane by KO/TKO: (+650)
- Gane by Points: (+270)
- Gane by Submission: (+950)

Jones vs Gane Prediction

The vacant UFC Heavyweight Championship belt is up for grabs. Former light heavyweight champion Jon Jones and former interim champ Ciryl Gane are set to battle it out in a matchup for the ages on March 4. Jones hasn't fought in the UFC since 2020 after vacating the title to move up a weight class.

Jones is finally ready to make his heavyweight debut. The 35-year-old hasn't earned a knockout win since 2018 and it'll be interesting to see if the fighter known for his striking abilities will be able to recapture the magic he once had. His only loss across 27 professional fight has come via decision.

Gane is more of a newcomer to the UFC, posting an impressive 8-1-0 record since his 2019 debut. The 32-year-old is best known for an iron chin and stellar endurance that allows him to outlast his opponents in the octagon, but that will be much harder against a former light heavyweight with plenty of experience in 5-round fights like Jones.

There are obviously some big question marks around Jones. He's moving up a weight class and hasn't fought since 2020. He also looked pretty underwhelming in his last two fights. Gane ultimately hasn't faced a ton of top competition in the very thin heavyweight division though, and it's a lot easier to look good against guys like Tai Tuivasa than Dominick Reyes.

This one is going to be close, but I'll side with Jon Jones to earn the title in his UFC return.

Jones vs Gane Best Bet

Once known for his flashy, exciting striking, Jones has played it much safer with his standup game in recent years, and he may not find a ton of success in that area against the larger Gane. Jones' bread and butter is truly his wrestling though, and with six submission wins to his name, he should thrive if this goes to the ground. He has a significant edge over Gane in that area.

Gane has just a 55% takedown defense rate in the UFC, and his lack of defensive wrestling is ultimately what cost him against Francis Ngannou — a man physically stronger but without nearly the wrestling pedigree that Jones possesses.

Gane averages 0.62 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 21% accuracy rate, while his takedown defense rate sits at 55%. Jones averages a reliable 1.85 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 44% accuracy rate, while his takedown defense rate checks in at 95%. That is a massive gap in skills and worth a gamble.

We haven't seen a submission win from Jones since 2012, but this matchup is a juicy spot for one, and the long odds are easy to like.

Bet: Jon Jones by Submission (+550)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

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