Jan Blachowicz vs Magomed Ankalaev Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for UFC 282 (Blachowicz Isn't Done Yet)

Jason Schandl
Jan Blachowicz vs Magomed Ankalaev betting preview for UFC 282, including predictions, odds and best bets.
Jan Blachowicz vs Magomed Ankalaev betting preview for UFC 282, including predictions, odds and best bets. / ASSOCIATED PRESS
facebooktwitterreddit

Blachowicz vs Ankalaev Fight Info, Date & Time

UFC 282 — Main Event Light Heavyweight Championship
Jan Blachowicz (29-9-0, 9 KOs) vs. Magomed Ankalaev (17-1-0, 9 KOs)
Date: Saturday, Dec. 10, 2022
Fight Time: This will be the final fight on the main card, which begins at 10 p.m. ET.
Venue: T-Mobile Arena — Las Vegas, NV
Coverage: ESPN+, PPV

Blachowicz vs Ankalaev Odds & Prop Bets

All UFC 282 odds, lines and prop bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline:
- Jan Blachowicz: (+250)
- Magomed Ankalaev: (-340)

Method of Victory:
- Blachowicz by KO/TKO: (+550)
- Blachowicz by Points: (+650)
- Blachowicz by Submission: (+1400)
- Ankalaev by KO/TKO: (+130)
- Ankalaev by Points: (+240)
- Ankalaev by Submission: (+950)

Blachowicz vs Ankalaev Prediction

Jan Blachowicz is pushing 40 years old, and this fight is largely being looked at as a "changing of the guard" situation with Ankalev getting his shot at a championship on a 9-fight win streak. It may be too early to crown him, though.

Blachowicz's last win came when Aleks Rakic suffered an injury, but there were still some serious positives to take away from that fight. He wasn't able to stop Rakic's wrestling, but poor defensive grappling has always been Blachowicz's weakness, and Ankalaev is not the opponent to expose that. Blachowicz did out-land Rakic 31 to 17 in significant strikes on the feet.

This is a long-time trend too. Glover beat Blachowicz with grappling, but before that Blachowicz had out-struck five straight opponents. In fact, dating back to September 2015 Blachowicz only has one loss in which he wasn't taken down at least twice.

Ankalaev has looked terrific in his UFC career so far, especially as a striker, but he's not a big threat to bring that grappling pressure against Blachowicz, making this fight much more of a toss-up than many are projecting.

This is also a massive step up in competition for Ankalaev, while Blachowicz has no shortage of experience in five-round fights against top competition.

Give me Jan Blachowicz in an upset win.

Blachowicz vs Ankalaev Best Bet

Obviously if I'm picking the underdog to win straight up, I love the betting value there. And one of my favorite themes when backing Blachowicz is picking him to win by decision. A few knockouts in a short stretch earned him a reputation as a power striker, but that's really not warranted — at least to the level it gets hyped up at.

His three knockout wins in 2019-2020 are three of only nine KO/TKO wins in his 38-fight MMA career — and that nine includes the Rakic injury, as well as a TKO back in 2010 that came from a corner stoppage.

Blachowicz is an elite striker, but one with highly overrated power. That makes for some nice value on decision props.

Bet Blachowicz by Points (+650)

dark. SIGN UP NOW. No Sweat First Bet Up To $1,000

Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

facebooktwitterreddit