Fighting

Israel Adesanya vs Alex Pereira Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for UFC 281 (The Champ Will Make it Look Easy)

Jason Schandl
Israel Adesanya vs Alex Pereira UFC 281 betting preview, including prediction, odds and best bet for tonight's fight.
Israel Adesanya vs Alex Pereira UFC 281 betting preview, including prediction, odds and best bet for tonight's fight. / ASSOCIATED PRESS
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Adesanya vs Pereira Fight Info, Date & Time

UFC 281 — Main Event Middleweight Championship
Israel "The Last Stylebender" Adesanya (23-1, 15 KO) vs. Alex "Poatan" Pereira (6-1, 5 KO)
Date: Saturday, Nov. 12, 2022
Fight Time: This will be the final fight on the main card, which begins at 10 p.m. ET.
Venue: Madison Square Garden — New York, NY
Coverage: ESPN+, PPV

Adesanya vs Pereira Odds & Prop Bets

All UFC 281 odds, lines and prop bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline:
- Israel Adesanya: (-230)
- Alex Pereira: (+184)

Method of Victory:
- Adesanya by KO/TKO: (+340)
- Adesanya by Points: (+120)
- Adesanya by Submission: (+1300)
- Pereira by KO/TKO: (+280)
- Pereira by Points: (+850)
- Pereira by Submission: (+2900)

Adesanya vs Pereira Prediction

Sure, Alex Pereira has looked great through three UFC fights. But he has jumped straight to a title shot without facing any other legitimate Middleweight contenders, and that rarely goes well for a hyped-up prospect.

Pereira is a former Glory kickboxing champion who even defeated Adesanya twice in the kickboxing ring (in 2016 and 2017), but striking in MMA is a completely different beast. Remember when Glory champ Ghokan Saki was supposed to take the Light Heavyweight division by storm before getting finished by Khalil Rountree?

Adesanya is not only a world-class kickboxer, but he is a world-class kickboxer who has already spent years adapting his striking style for MMA, which he has proven time and time again against the most dangerous strikers the Middleweight division has had to offer.

Once a champ has dominated a division for as long as Adesanya it becomes hard to sell most opponents as exciting matchups, so the unknown and distant history of an opponent like Pereira starts to become intriguing because at least it's a fresh face.

Unfortunately that hype isn't likely to materialize, and Adesanya should cruise to another win.

Adesanya vs Pereira Best Bet

Of course, as a -230 favorite liking Adesanya to win doesn't necessarily mean wagering on that outcome is how you want to bet tonight. Instead it's a prop bet I'm most interested in.

Adesanya is no stranger to facing opponents whose best shot at victory is catching him with a power strike. And he's come out unscathed each time. His strength is his defensive fighting, and despite criticism around his "boring" style he's shown a willingness to commit to focusing his strategy on winning over being entertaining.

In his most recent fight he landed fewer than 10 significant head strikes in two of the first three rounds against Jared Cannonier before turning things up in the final two against a more tired opponent. Pereira may not gas the way that Cannonier does, so Adesanya's defensive approach could extend even further into the fight.

Combining that with his great shot at winning this one, and the decision/points method of victory bet is really easy to like at plus odds.

Bet Adesanya by Points (+120)

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Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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