Heat vs. Knicks Eastern Semifinals Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for NBA Playoffs Game 6 (Brunson Forces Game 7)

The New York Knicks stayed alive by winning Game 5 on their home court with a 112-103 victory over the Miami Heat at Madison Square Garden. They still trail 3-2 in the series, however, as Miami looks to close things out at home in Game 6.

Heat vs. Knicks Game Info

• Date: Friday, May 12, 2023
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Kaseya Center -- Miami, Florida
• Coverage: ESPN

While the Knicks are still playing with their backs against the wall, some of the pressure is on the Heat to end this series on Friday night. If not, the series will suddenly be up for grabs in Game 7 at Madison Square Garden.

Heat vs. Knicks Odds & Spread

All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Heat vs Knicks Betting Information

Favorite	Spread	Favorite Spread Odds	Underdog Spread Odds	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline
Heat	-4.5	-108	-112	209	-110	-110	-196	+164

As has been the case with every game this series, the home team is favored in Game 6 by the oddsmakers. And once again, the game holds the lowest total on the slate with an over/under of 209 total points.

Heat vs. Knicks Betting Trends

• The Heat have gone 30-48-1 against the spread this season.
• The Knicks have been underdogs by 4.5 points or more 11 times this year and are 5-4-2 ATS in those games.
• This season, 39 of the Heat's games have gone over the point total out of 78 chances.
• Knicks games this season have hit the over on 42 of 78 set point totals (53.8%).
• Miami has done a better job covering the spread in away games (15-24-0) than it has in home games (15-24-1).
• In 2022-23 against the spread, New York has a lower winning percentage at home (.462, 18-20-1 record) than away (.641, 25-13-1).

Heat vs. Knicks Prediction & Pick

The Knicks finally saw their shooting percentages from 3-point range and from the free throw line increase to respectable levels in Game 5 and it got them a win. It helped that they also prevented the Heat from having too much success behind the arc as well. While New York did get hurt on second-chance points, it won the rebounding battle resoundingly in Game 5. With all of these trends finally going in the Knicks' favor, I expect that to continue in Game 6.

New York also did a great job of converting Miami's turnovers into points, something the Knicks prevented the Heat from doing despite having seven more turnovers. Game 6 will once again be about effort on the boards and defense along with limiting mental mistakes. New York took a step in the right direction in Game 5 but needs to replicate that success in Game 6 if it wants to stay alive.

Miami won't go quietly, but expect another massive game from Jalen Brunson to lead the Knicks to a win.

Final Score Prediction: Knicks 108 | Heat 104

Heat vs. Knicks Best Bet

Brunson was phenomenal in Game 5 at MSG, putting up 38 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists en route to a Knicks win. His total for combined Pts + Rbs + Asts in Game 6 is 39.5. Brunson has repeatedly proven that he is best when the Knicks need him most. He shattered this total in both Games 4 and 5 and seems to be on a streak that can't be stopped.

If New York wins or is even competitive in this game, it will be because Brunson had yet another monster performance. Ride the Brunson wave in Game 6.

Bet: Jalen Brunson Pts + Rbs + Ast: Over 39.5 (-111)

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David Kaestle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, David also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username davekaestle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.