Heat vs. Bucks Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for NBA Playoffs Game 3 (Milwaukee's Road Dominance Continues in Miami)
By Larry Rupp
The 2022-23 NBA Playoffs continue on Saturday with Game 3 of the first round series between the Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat.
Heat vs. Bucks Game Info
- Date: Saturday, April 22, 2023
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Kaseya Center -- Miami, Florida
- Coverage: ESPN, BSSUN, and BSWI
The first two games of this series couldn't have been more different. The Heat pulled off an upset with a 130-117 win in Game 1 thanks to Jimmy Butler's 35 points, while the Bucks cruised to a 138-122 victory in Game 2 as they matched an NBA Playoff record with 25 made three-pointers.
With the series shifting to Miami, which Eastern Conference foe will take the series lead in Game 3?
Heat vs. Bucks Odds & Spread
- All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: MIA: (+198) | MIL: (-240)
- Spread: MIA: +5.5 (-110) | MIL: -5.5 (-110)
- Total: 220.5 -- Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
The Bucks enter this contest as moderate road favorites on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 7:30 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 220.5 points, with each side available at -110 odds.
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Heat vs. Bucks Betting Trends
- The Bucks went 39-42-1 ATS last season.
- The Heat's ATS record as underdogs of 4 points or greater was 10-3 last season.
- Bucks games went over the point total 42 out of 82 times last season.
- In 82 Heat games last year, 46 of them hit the over.
Heat vs. Bucks Prediction & Pick
The Bucks were without Giannis Antetokounmpo in Game 2 due to a back injury, but that didn't matter as veterans Brook Lopez and Jrue Holiday combined for 49 points, 13 assists and 9 rebounds. Giannis' status remains up in the air ahead of Saturday's tip-off, so keep an eye out for updates there.
This series now shifts to the Kaseya Center in Miami, but that may not be a huge deal. The Bucks boast the best road record in the Eastern Conference (26-15) and average 115.0 points per game away from home (No. 8 in NBA). They also won four of their six away games in last year's postseason.
While the Heat are a 27-14 at home this season, they rank 21st in terms of average scoring margin in those games (+1.1). They fail to pull away from teams when they have the chance and that will come back to bite them against a Bucks team that ranks eighth in fourth quarter points per game (27.6).
Final Score Prediction: Heat: 106 | Bucks: 116
Check out more of The Duel's NBA Playoffs content:
Heat vs. Bucks Best Bet
There's no understating how poor Miami has been when it comes to covering the spread on its home court. The Heat are 15-26-2 against the spread (ATS) at home and that lack of success is due in large part to the fact that they average a lackluster 111.1 points per home game (No. 28 in NBA).
Yes, Miami's defense is stellar, but the Bucks can rival that defensive intensity considering they rank No. 1 in defensive efficiency on the road. Milwaukee is a reliable 15-8-3 ATS as a road favorite this season and has won 15 of its last 18 games on the road. Trust the Bucks to pull away on Saturday.
Bet: Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 (-110)
Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.