Heat vs Bucks Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for NBA Playoffs Game 1 (Milwaukee, Miami Exceed Expectations)

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks prediction, odds and betting insights for NBA playoffs Game 1.
Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks prediction, odds and betting insights for NBA playoffs Game 1. / (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

Sunday, April 16's NBA postseason schedule features Game 1 of the Eastern Conference series between the Miami Heat (44-38) and Milwaukee Bucks (58-24).

Heat vs Bucks Game 1 Info

  • Date: Sunday, April 16, 2023
  • Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Fiserv Forum -- Milwaukee, Wisconsin
  • Coverage: TNT

Despite finishing 14 victories apart in the standings, the Heat and Bucks were evenly matched during the regular campaign. Miami opened the season series with back-to-back wins at home over the span of three days in January. Unfortunately, the Heat didn't have the same luck when things shifted to Milwaukee, where the Bucks won both of their February meetings.

Will the Bucks continue the trend with another win at Fiserv Forum? Or will the Heat figure out a way to upset the home team?

Heat vs Bucks Odds & Spread

  • All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
  • Moneyline: MIA: (+330) | MIL: (-420)
  • Spread: MIA: +9.5 (-110) | MIL: -9.5 (-110)
  • Total: 218.5 -- Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

The Bucks enter this contest as heavy home favorites on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 5:30 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 218.5 points with both sides available at -110 odds. 

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Heat vs Bucks Betting Trends

  • Miami is 5-2 straight up in its last seven games.
  • Milwaukee is 16-4 straight up in its last 20 home games.
  • Miami is 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last five road games.
  • Milwaukee is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine games.
  • The total has hit the over in each of Miami's last five road games against Milwaukee.
  • The total has hit the over in five of Milwaukee's last six games against the Southeast Division.

Heat vs Bucks Prediction & Pick

While the Heat have a decent amount of momentum behind them, playing on the road has been a challenge. After all, they've dropped 10 of their last 15 away contests averaging an abysmal 106.5 PPG over that run. Now they must take on the Bucks, who've gone 16-4 straight up in their previous 20 home games, holding opponents to 104 or fewer points in three of the last five.

The Heat will also have issues slowing the Bucks down in the paint. For starters, Milwaukee averages an NBA-best 56.9 rebounds per game, whereas Miami averages just 48.6 RPG (No. 25). The Bucks also average the ninth-most points in the paint, meaning names like Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler have to step up to slow down Giannis Antetokounmpo.

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While the Heat have impressively held Antetokounmpo to a 20.6 PTS/11.8 REB/6.5 AST line over the last eight encounters, the Bucks are too deep of a team to slow down. Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez are all more than capable of stepping up to get the job done.

In a closer game than the odds project, back the Bucks to go up 1-0 in the series.

Final Score Prediction: Bucks: 116 | Heat: 110

Heat vs Bucks Best Bet

Taking the over on the 218.5-point total seems like a pretty safe bet this time around. The over is not only 5-2 in the Heat's last seven games, but also 6-2 in the Bucks' most recent eight. The two sides have also finished with more-than-expected points in six of their last nine meetings.

Considering how each of the last five Heat-Bucks matchups played at Fiserv Forum have gone over 218.5 points, I expect to see a fair bit of offense tonight.

Bet: Over 218.5 Points (-110)

Watch FanDuel TV’s new NBA show “Run It Back” with Shams Charania, Michelle Beadle, Chandler Parsons, and Eddie Gonzalez Monday-Wednesday at 10 ET on FanDuel TV, the FanDuel Youtube page, or download the podcast here: fanduel.com/podcasts.

Devon Platana is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Devon Platana also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username PepeSilvia0. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.