Heat vs. Pacers Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for December 23 (Indiana Puts Up a Fight at FTX Arena)

Larry Rupp
Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers prediction, odds and betting insights for NBA regular season game.
Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers prediction, odds and betting insights for NBA regular season game. / AP Photos/Darron Cummings
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Heat vs. Pacers Game Info

  • Date: Friday, December 23, 2022
  • Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • Venue: FTX Arena -- Miami, Florida
  • Coverage: BSSUN and BSIN

The 2022-23 NBA season continues on Friday with 14 more games, including a battle between the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat. The Pacers rank ninth in the Eastern Conference with a 16-16 record, while the Heat check in seventh with a 16-16 record. One team will be able to get over .500 tonight.

Indiana enters as a loser in four of its last six games, but did take down the mighty Boston Celtics by a score of 117-112 on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Miami saw its four-game winning streak snapped in a 113-103 loss to the Chicago Bulls on Tuesday. Will the Heat be able to bounce back at FTX Arena?

Heat vs. Pacers Odds & Spread

Heat vs Pacers Betting Information
Favorite Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline
Heat -5.5 - - - - - -235 194
  • All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
  • Moneyline: MIA: (-240) | IND: (+198)
  • Spread: MIA: -6.5 (-108) | IND: +6.5 (-112)
  • Total: 223.5 -- Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

The Heat enter this contest as clear home favorites on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 8 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 223.5 points, which is about average compared to Friday's projected totals.

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Heat vs. Pacers Betting Trends

  • The Heat won 45 games against the spread last season, while failing to cover or pushing 37 times.
  • As 5.5-point underdogs or more, the Pacers went 14-11-1 against the spread last year.
  • The Heat and their opponents combined to hit the over 46 out of 82 times last season.
  • There were 47 Pacers games (out of 82) that went over the total last year.

Heat vs. Pacers Prediction & Pick

These teams have met twice in Indiana this season, with each side earning a closely contested win. The Heat and Pacers line up as similar squads as each one excels on the defensive end. Miami and Indiana both rank among the top 10 teams in turnovers forced and points allowed per game in 2022.

Where Indiana gains an edge is from long range. The Pacers are shooting 36.7% from beyond the arc this season (No. 12 in NBA), while the Heat are only shooting 34.3% (No. 23 in NBA). Miami is also allowing an opponent three-point shooting percentage of 37.5% in home games (No. 24 in NBA).

The Pacers are coming off their best win of the season and I see them surprising the Heat in Miami.

Final Score Prediction: Heat: 107 | Pacers: 109

Heat vs. Pacers Best Bet

Bettors afraid to take a Pacers team that has odds set at +198 to emerge victorious should shift gears to backing Indiana on the 6.5-point spread. After all, head coach Rick Carlisle's team is a reliable 11-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last 15 games against an Eastern Conference opponent.

On the other side, Miami is only 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine games overall and 1-5 ATS in its last six games against a Central Division opponent. The Heat are also a dismal 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games. It's clear that backing the underdog is the way to go in this Friday night matchup.

Bet: Indiana Pacers +6.5 (-112)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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