Dolphins vs Patriots Prediction, Odds & Best Bets for Week 17 (New England Bounces Back Against Familiar Foe)

Tyler Maher
Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots prediction, odds and best bets for NFL Week 17 game.
Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots prediction, odds and best bets for NFL Week 17 game. / ASSOCIATED PRESS
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Dolphins vs Patriots Week 17 Game Info

2022 NFL Regular Season — Week 17
Miami Dolphins (8-7, 3-5 Away) vs. New England Patriots (7-8, 3-4 Home)
Date: Sunday, Jan. 1, 2023
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium — Foxborough, MA
Coverage: CBS

Two AFC East rivals fighting for a playoff spot meet head-to-head in Week 17 as the Miami Dolphins visit the New England Patriots. Both teams have hit the skids down the stretch, with Miami losing four straight and New England dropping four of five.

Can the Dolphins end their losing streak with a big road win in Foxborough? Or will the Patriots rebound from back-to-back close losses?

Dolphins vs Patriots Odds & Spread

All NFL betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline: MIA: (+128) | NE: (-152)
Spread: MIA: +2.5 (-105) | NE: -2.5 (-115)
Total: 42.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

The Patriots enter this contest as slight home favorites on the moneyline and spread on FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 1 p.m. ET clash also features a total of 42.5 points, which is about average compared to the rest of the Week 17 slate.

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Dolphins vs Patriots Prediction & Pick

Both of these teams have been unlucky lately, as the Dolphins have lost three straight games by six points or less while both of the Patriots' last two losses went down to the wire.

Miami could be at a significant disadvantage this week if Tua Tagovailoa is unable to suit up, however. He's currently in concussion protocol and may not be able to play if he isn't cleared in time, which would thrust Teddy Bridgewater back into a starting role.

A rusty Bridgewater wouldn't be a recipe for success against a tough New England defense that's given up the fifth-fewest points and eighth-fewest yards this year. The Dolphins have also had significant issues playing in the cold weather lately, going 0-4 in December.

The Patriots nearly upset the Cincinnati Bengals last week and should be able to grind out a divisional win this week, regardless of whether Tua plays or not.

Final Score Prediction: Patriots: 21 | Dolphins: 17

Dolphins vs Patriots Betting Trends

- The Dolphins are 2-8 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 road games in New England.
- The Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against the AFC East.
- Miami is 4-0 ATS in its last four games against New England.
- The total has gone under in each of New England's last four home games.

Dolphins vs Patriots Best Bet

With a strong defense and a mediocre offense, the Patriots have played in their fair share of low-scoring games this year. They've scored fewer than 20 points in three of their last six games and are allowing just 19.4 points per game this season.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, appear to have hit a wall after their strong start. Their offense is averaging only 20.8 points per game during their four-game losing streak, scoring 20 points or less three times during that span.

If Tagovailoa sits, the under becomes even more likely. These teams combined for 27 points back in Week 1, so the under is the play here.

Bet: Under 42.5 Total Points (-110)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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