Dolphins vs Bills Prediction, Odds & Best Bets for AFC Wild Card Playoff Game (Buffalo Cruises at Highmark Stadium)

Larry Rupp
Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills prediction, odds and best bets for NFC Wild Card Playoff game.
Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills prediction, odds and best bets for NFC Wild Card Playoff game. / AP Photos/Adrian Kraus
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Dolphins vs Bills Wild Card Game Info

2022 NFL Playoffs — AFC Wild Card Game
Miami Dolphins (9-8, 3-6 Away) vs. Buffalo Bills (13-3, 7-1 Home)
Date: Sunday, Jan. 15, 2023
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Highmark Stadium — Orchard Park, NY
Coverage: CBS

With the regular season in the rearview mirror, it is time for the NFL Playoffs to begin. The Miami Dolphins will go on the road to take on the Buffalo Bills during Wild Card Weekend on Sunday, Jan. 15. These AFC East rivals split their two exciting head-to-head meetings during the regular season.

Miami is the No. 7 seed in the AFC and enters aiming to pull off a legendary upset. The Dolphins lost five of their final six games of the regular season, though. Meanwhile, Buffalo is the No. 2 seed in the AFC and remain one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl. The Bills have won seven straight games.

Dolphins vs Bills Odds & Spread

All NFL betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline: MIA: (+400) | BUF: (-520)
Spread: MIA: +10.5 (-110) | BUF: -10.5 (-110)
Total: 43.5 — Over: (-115) | Under: (-105)
Odds to Win Super Bowl: MIA: +6000 | BUF: +420

The Bills enter this contest as heavy home favorites on the moneyline and spread on FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This Sunday afternoon clash also features one of the lower totals on the Wild Card slate at 43.5 points.

Dolphins vs Bills Prediction & Pick

This game features no shortage of storylines, but the biggest one remains the injury concerns at QB for the Dolphins. Miami could end up starting Tua Tagovailoa, Teddy Bridgewater or Skylar Thompson on Sunday. Tagovailoa is overcoming a concussion, while Bridgewater is dealing with a finger issue.

However, the Bills will remain a heavy favorite no matter who the Dolphins start at QB. That is because Buffalo is one of the most balanced teams in the NFL. It ranks second in offense DVOA rating and fourth in defense DVOA rating. The Bills have also posted the best average scoring margin (+10.6).

It's worth noting that the Dolphins defense simply fell apart down the stretch. Miami allowed five of its final six opponents to score at least 23 points and now ranks 18th in the NFL when it comes to yards per game allowed in 2022 (337.8). That is not going to get the job done in a rowdy road environment.

Final Score Prediction: Dolphins: 17 | Bills: 31

Dolphins vs Bills Betting Trends

- Miami is 6-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last seven games against an AFC East opponent.
- The total has hit the over in six of Miami's last seven away games.
- Buffalo is 6-0 straight up in its last six home games against Miami.
- The total has hit the over in 11 of Buffalo's last 16 games against Miami.

Dolphins vs Bills Best Bet

Quarterback Josh Allen has dominated the Dolphins during his career playing at Highmark Stadium. The average scoring margin of the five games in which he has faced Miami at home is +16.6. He has also thrown for 27 touchdowns compared to 5 interceptions in 10 career games against Miami.

That makes backing the Bills an easy choice on Sunday. Buffalo has tallied at least 32 points in each of its last three games, while Miami has racked up less than 22 points in five of its last six games. The depth and talent of head coach Sean McDermott's roster is going to shine through in a blowout win.

Bet: Buffalo Bills -10.5 (-110)

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Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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