Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday 5/3/23

Horse Racing Picks from Churchill Downs on Wednesday, May 3.
Horse Racing Picks from Churchill Downs on Wednesday, May 3. / Associated Press

It's Kentucky Derby week and the first full week of the Churchill Downs Spring Meet. There are 10 races on Wednesday, including a pair of stakes. First post is at 12:45 p.m. ET.

As always, check the program for scratches and changes, monitor the weather and keep an eye on the track conditions.

(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races after adjusting for track, distances, and conditions).

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Churchill Downs Betting Picks

According to numberFire horse racing projections and Guaranteed Tip Sheet, these are some of the best bets to make at FanDuel Racing today.

Did you follow FanDuel Racing picks and cash in on the biggest longshot in a recent Allowance race at Keeneland? Time For Trouble (18/1) cashed $2 win bets for $37.50 and a $2 exacta paid $189. 

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1. Charley Rude and Twirling Patti, Race 6

FanDuel Racing Odds: 3/1 and 4/1
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Race 6 is a Claiming race for fillies and mares at 7 1/2 furlongs. Guaranteed Tip Sheet has a best bet on Charley Rude (3/1). Both Twirling Patti (4/1) and Elle of the Ball (7/2) are projected to hit the board.

Charley Rude won a maiden claimer in Nov. and has been running against Allowance company, but failed to hit the board. She's been having good workouts, however, and should be fresh in her return from a 7-week layoff.

2. Lone Rock and Next, Race 8

FanDuel Racing Odds: 5/1 and 8/5
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Race 8 is the $175,000 Isaac Murphy Marathon Overnight Stakes for older horses at 1 1/2 miles. A leading favorite Scarlet Fusion (2/1) is a late scratch. Guaranteed Tip Sheet has top win contenders as Lone Rock (5/1) and Next (8/5).

Next has won six times, including his two recent stakes with a Grade 2 win most recently in Nov. Lone Rock is an 8-year-old with 16 wins. Two of those are in the past year with five straight in-the-money finishes in stakes races, including a Grade 2.

3. Lady Hollywood and My Sweet Affair, Race 9

FanDuel Racing Odds: 2/1 and 6/1
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Race 9 is the $225,000 Mamzelle Overnight Stakes for 3-year-old fillies sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf. Top jockeys John Velazquez and Irad Ortiz, Jr. ride the top GTS win contenders Lady Hollywood (2/1) and Shootoutthelights (5/2), who are both trained by Wesley Ward.

Lady Hollywood has won 4-of-9 starts but missed in her US debut and finished fifth in the Breeders' Cup turf last Nov. She finished runner-up by a half-length in her 2023 debut in a minor stakes three weeks ago.

Shootoutthelights is working sharply since her Maiden debut win three weeks ago at Gulfstream. My Sweet Affair (6/1) offers value as an off-the-pace closer with Luis Saez riding. She is 1-for-2 this year and finished a close third in the FanDuel Limestone Stakes a month ago.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.