Bucks vs. Heat Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for February 24 (Defense Takes Center Stage in Milwaukee)

Larry Rupp
Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat prediction, odds and betting insights for NBA regular season game.
Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat prediction, odds and betting insights for NBA regular season game. / AP Photos/Charles Rex Arbogast

Bucks vs. Heat Game Info

  • Date: Friday, February 24, 2023
  • Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Fiserv Forum -- Milwaukee, Wisconsin
  • Coverage: ESPN, BSSUN, and BSWI

The 2022-23 NBA season continues on Friday with eight more games, including a battle between the Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks. The Heat rank seventh in the Eastern Conference with a 32-27 record, while the Bucks check in second with a 41-17 record. This should be an intense showdown.

Miami enters as a loser in four of its last seven games following a 116-105 loss to the Brooklyn Nets on Feb. 15. Meanwhile, Milwaukee extended its winning streak to 12 games thanks to a 112-100 win over the Chicago Bulls on Feb. 16. Can the Bucks keep momentum rolling or will they suffer a loss?

Bucks vs. Heat Odds & Spread

  • All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
  • Moneyline: MIL: (-118) | MIA: (+100)
  • Spread: MIL: -1.5 (-110) | MIA: +1.5 (-110)
  • Total: 219.5 -- Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

The Bucks enter this contest as slight home favorites on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 7:30 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 219.5 points, which ranks as the lowest of Friday's projected totals.

Bucks vs Heat Betting Information
Favorite Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline
Bucks -1 - - - - - -116 -102

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Bucks vs. Heat Betting Trends

  • The Bucks have covered the spread 31 times in 56 games with a set spread.
  • So far this season, the Heat have been installed as underdogs by a 1-point margin or more 17 times and are 8-9 ATS in those matchups.
  • Games involving the Bucks have hit the over 27 times out of 59 chances this season.
  • Heat games this year have eclipsed the over/under 26 times in 59 opportunities (44.1%).
  • Milwaukee has done a better job covering the spread at home (18-11-0) than it has in road affairs (13-13-1).
  • Miami has been better against the spread away (14-16-0) than at home (9-19-1) this year.

Bucks vs. Heat Prediction & Pick

It's worth noting that neither one of these teams is healthy at the moment. The Heat will be without Kyle Lowry tonight (knee), while the Bucks are expected to be without Giannis Antetokounmpo (wrist). Vital role players like Tyler Herro, Pat Connaughton and Victor Oladipo are a bit banged up as well.

Milwaukee should still win this one without Giannis. The Bucks roster five other players averaging more than 10.0 points per game on an offense that ranks eighth in home scoring (118.9 points per game). Head coach Mike Budenholzer's team owns a solid +7.4 home average scoring margin, too.

Miami has lost eight of its last 12 games against Milwaukee, so fade the Heat on Friday night.

Final Score Prediction: Bucks: 112 | Heat: 106

Bucks vs. Heat Best Bet

This game features the lowest point total on Friday's NBA slate for a reason. The Heat check in fourth in defensive efficiency and allow just 108.3 points per game (No. 2 in NBA), while Milwaukee ranks third in defensive efficiency and gives up only 111.6 points per game on the season (No. 6 in NBA).

Defense is going to be the key to success tonight. The total has hit the under in four of Milwaukee's last five games overall as well as in seven of its last 10 games against a Southeast Division opponent. The under has also cashed in nine of Miami's last 11 games against a Central Division opponent.

Bet: Under 219.5 Points (-110)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.