Bucks vs Heat 2023 Playoffs Preview (Odds, Season Series and All-Time History)

The 2023 NBA Playoffs are here and there are several exciting matchups to look forward to. One series fans have circled is the 1-seed Milwaukee Bucks taking on the 8-seed Miami Heat in the first round.

These two sides have plenty of history together and no shortage of big-name players. Here's everything you need to know before they square off this postseason.

Bucks vs Heat All-Time Playoff History

The Bucks and Heat have played 13 playoff games against each other before the 2023 postseason. Miami owns the all-time lead in this matchup, going 8-5 across the three previous series.

The Bucks and Heat first met in the 2013 postseason, but it didn't last long as LeBron James and co. swept Milwaukee in dominant fashion. The two teams collided seven years later in the semifinals of the 2020 NBA Bubble, resulting in an impressive 4-1 series win for the Heat.

It didn't take long for Milwaukee to exact revenge, though. The Bucks swept the Heat in the first round of the 2020-21 postseason, winning each of the final three meetings by at least a 17-point margin.

Bucks-Heat Season Series 2023

As Eastern Conference foes, the Bucks and Heat faced off four times against each other during the 2022-23 campaign. Much to many NBA enthusiasts' surprise, the series went evenly.

The first two games of the season series were played in Miami. The Heat picked up a 108-102 victory in the first encounter on Jan. 12 before winning again — this time 111-95 — just two days later. Unfortunately, Erik Spoelstra's team ran into issues when things shifted to the road.

The Bucks squeezed out a 123-115 win over the Heat at Fiserv Forum on Feb. 4, let by Giannis Antetokounmpo's triple-double (35 points, 15 rebounds, 11 assists). Milwaukee didn't stop there, blowing out Miami 128-99 almost exactly three weeks later.

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Bucks vs Nets Odds and Prediction for 2023 Playoff Series

After an even regular-season series, the Bucks are the heavy favorites to advance to the next postseason round, per FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA odds. Milwaukee is currently available as the -1200 favorite while Miami sits at +750 odds. The sportsbook also expects it to be a quick series, favoring it to end in five games at +155.

The Bucks are the deeper team, led by the dominant trio of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday. That's not even to mention the rejuvenated Brook Lopez or key role players like Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton and Joe Ingles. 

The only way the Heat can win this series is if they shut down all of the above players on a nightly basis. As strong as Miami's defense is, it can't keep Milwaukee quiet forever. Eventually, the Bucks' best players will break through and the Heat won't be able to keep up, proven by their NBA-worst offense. 

Having said that, the Heat did beat the Bucks twice at home this season, so I don't see this being a sweep. A group with Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry is too solid to be swept. 

Giving the Heat a bit of respect, I expect the Bucks to move on to the next round in five games (+155). 

Devon Platana is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Devon Platana also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username PepeSilvia0. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

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