Horse Racing

Breeders' Cup Juvenile 2022 Win Contenders and Criteria at FanDuel Racing

FairwayJay
FanDuel Breeders' Cup 2022 Juvenile contenders.
FanDuel Breeders' Cup 2022 Juvenile contenders. / Darron Cummings / Associated Press
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One of the year's biggest weekends in horse racing is just days away with the 2022 Breeders' Cup bringing 14 races across two days on Nov. 4-5.

The races kick off on Friday with several events fans and bettors are looking forward to. That's when the Breeders' Cup Juvenile goes down at 3:00 p.m. ET. The 1 1/16 mile race on the dirt has a purse of $2 million.

The BC Juvenile challengers and contenders were announced last week. Here's additional insight from FanDuel Racing our contacts at Horse Racing Nation with everything you need to know about the leading contenders and field before wagering on the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on FanDuel Racing.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Contenders and Criteria

This appears to be shaping up as a race with a lot of separation. As you get past the top ranked horses, the HRN screener scores drop off significantly.

The pace will be blazing hot with heavy pressure so Cave Rock will have his work cut out of him though he owns then pace and stamina advantages to prevail under these conditions. The pace set up works very well for Forte, National Treasure and the Top Long Shot pick, Lost Ark who will all be
coming from off the pace with Lost Ark doing all his late work from the back of the pack.

Top Win Contenders

1. Cave Rock

Cave Rock is a son of Breeders' Cup Classic winner Arrogate. He's the top horse in trainer Bob Baffert’s barn. Cave Rock didn’t debut until mid August but he proceeded to crush the top 2-yr-olds based in California. The 2-yr-old crop has not been all that impressive thus far as indicated by how many horses in this field are ranked lower in the screener analysis and ratings. Cave Rock is the speed of the speed yet owns tremendous balance so even though the pace set up works against him, he owns all the tools to prevail as the top scorer.

2. Forte

Forte is an off the pace runner trained by Todd Pletcher. This colt is arguably the top 2 yr-old from the east. He overcame a slow pace on a sloppy Saratoga surface to take down the Grade 1 Hopeful and then enjoyed all the pace advantage in a close follow-up win in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity run on this surface at Keeneland. Forte will sit a great mid-pack trip here and will close into all that speed. Form cycle analysis indicates a move forward.

3. National Treasure

This other Bob Baffert-trained colt is loaded with talent and has only made two starts. He rates top value coming from off the pace. National Treasure finished a clear second to his stablemate Cave Rock in the Grade 1 American Pharoah and showed great balance in the way he laid out energy.

4. Lost Ark

Lost Ark is a closer and the top longshot pick. Put a line through his last race as he was bumped hard heading into the first turn and was knocked off stride and shuffled back. Then he was making a move into the second turn but ran up on the heals of a rival and was forced to check losing all momentum. He couldn’t benefit more from this pace set up as he’ll come from the back of the back and can get up for a piece of this at a big price for exacta, trifecta and superfecta bets.

Juvenile Criteria

• Win contenders must have had 3 or more starts, or have shown strong progression forward.
• Vast majority of winners had their final prep at 1 mile or further
• Combining the LP and BRIS speed figures from their final two preps has been the most powerful indicator
• The Champagne has produced at least one member of the Trifecta in 9 of the previous 11 editions when the Juvenile has been held on dirt
• Discount horses that have been away 60+ days
• Prefer horses in which their BRIS Speed Rating increased going from sprint to route
• Discount any race run on a sloppy track
• Demand a sharp final prep race
• Upgrade horses that gained ground between the second call and stretch
•Prefer horses that hit a top last time out

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