Bills vs Patriots Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for Thursday Night Football (Defenses Shine in Foxborough)

Tyler Maher
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots prediction, odds and betting trends for NFL Week 13.
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots prediction, odds and betting trends for NFL Week 13. / ASSOCIATED PRESS
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Bills vs Patriots Week 13 Game Info

2022 NFL Regular Season Game
Buffalo Bills (8-3, 4-2 Away) vs. New England Patriots (6-5, 3-2 Home)
Date: Thursday, Dec. 1, 2022
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium — Foxborough, MA
Coverage: Prime Video

December kicks off with a Week 13 Thursday Night Football showdown between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots. Both teams are coming off exciting games on Thanksgiving where the Bills prevailed over the Detroit Lions and the Patriots came up short against the Minnesota Vikings.

The Patriots were the only team in the AFC East to lose last week, snapping their three-game winning streak and dropping them to last place in the division despite still owning a winning record. They fell two games behind the Bills, who are tied with the Miami Dolphins at the top of the standings after back-to-back wins.

This game is thus hugely important for both teams as they jockey for positioning in the division, especially the Patriots as they look to stay above .500 and remain in the playoff hunt.

Bills vs Patriots Odds & Spread

All NFL betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline: BUF: (-235) | NE: (+194)
Spread: BUF: -4.5 (-115) | NE: +4.5 (-105)
Total: 43.5 —Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

Buffalo enters this game as a solid favorite on both the moneyline and spread on FanDuel Sportsbook. This rivalry clash also features an over/under of 43.5, which is about average compared to other Week 13 totals.

Bills vs Patriots Prediction & Pick

The Bills have dominated the Patriots lately, outscoring them 80-38 in their two most recent meetings last year. New England's defense was no match for Buffalo's high-flying offense, which didn't punt once in either game.

This season brings a new slate, although both teams are largely the same. The Bills once again look like legitimate Super Bowl contenders and have been outstanding on both sides of the ball, ranking second in points per game (28.1) while giving up the fifth-fewest (18.1).

The Patriots also feature a staunch defense, ranking just behind Buffalo at sixth in points allowed (18.4). New England's offense has regressed this season following the departure of former offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, however, ranking 18th in scoring (21.7 PPG) and 31st in red-zone percentage.

Both defenses should excel on what is forecasted to be a cold night in Foxborough, but the Bills are the better team and should continue their success against the Patriots.

Final Score Prediction: Bills: 24 | Patriots: 17

Bills vs Patriots Betting Trends

- Buffalo is 1-4-1 against the spread (ATS) versus teams with a winning record.
- New England is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games.
- The total has hit the under in each of Buffalo's last six road games.
- The total has hit the over in eight of New England's last 11 home games.

Bills vs Patriots Best Bet

As mentioned, New England's offense has been terrible in the red zone this year and is often forced to settle for field goals. That's not going to get the job done against Buffalo, who have a much more potent offense and a clear advantage under center with Josh Allen over Mac Jones.

The Bills are more than capable of blowing out the Patriots (as we've seen in the past), but even if they don't they should still be able to win by at least six or seven points and cover the spread.

Bet: Bills -4.5 (-115)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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