Bengals vs Chiefs Expert Picks & Predictions for NFL AFC Championship Game (Experts Loving Bengals' Magic)
The AFC continues to show why it's the best conference in the NFL at the moment. What's better than an AFC Championship rematch between Patrick Mahomes and his Kansas City Chiefs versus Joe Burrow and the defending conference champs?
It's time to respect the Cincinnati Bengals. After their convincing Divisional Round victory over the Buffalo Bills, there's no more doubt about whether this team is legit. They are, and they have just as good of a chance of winning Super Bowl 57 as any of the four teams remaining.
The betting odds on FanDuel Sportsbook have flipped back and forth for this rematch. Kansas City originally opened up as a slim favorite, only to see the Bengals favored, and now the pendulum has swung back in the Chiefs' favor. As of Thursday afternoon, Kansas City is considered a slim 1-point favorite.
Considering this matchup is virtually a toss-up, let's take a deeper look at some of the industry's biggest projection models and NFL experts to take the temperature on how this game will really shake out.
Bengals vs Chiefs Projections
ESPN FPI: Chiefs (65.5%)
numberFire: Chiefs (62.0%)
FiveThirtyEight: Chiefs (58%)
Moneyline Projection: Chiefs (53.7%)
Projected Winner: Chiefs (4)
All of the major projection markets are siding with the Chiefs, perhaps more convincingly than the 1-point spread would suggest. ESPN is giving Kansas City a nearly 2-in-3 chance to win, while numberFire and FiveThirtyEight are similarly optimistic at around 60%.
If you're more interested in who the experts are picking, however, we'll take a look at that as well.
Bengals vs Chiefs Expert Picks
- Stephania Bell: N/A
- Matt Bowen: N/A
- Mike Clay: Chiefs
- Jeremy Fowler: N/A
- Dan Graziano: Bengals
- Jason Reid: N/A
- Seth Wickersham: Chiefs
ESPN Total: Chiefs (2), Bengals (1)
Sports Illustrated Experts
- Albert Breer: Bengals
- Mitch Goldich: Chiefs
- Gary Gramling: Bengals
- Conor Orr: Bengals
- John Pluym: Bengals
Sports Illustrated Total: Bengals (4), Chiefs (1)
CBS Sports Experts
- Pete Prisco: Bengals
- Jason La Canfora: Bengals
- Will Brinson: N/A
- Jared Dubin: Bengals
- Ryan Wilson: Bengals
- John Breech: Bengals
- Dave Richard: Bengals
- Jamey Eisenberg: Bengals
CBS Total: Bengals (7)
Expert Totals: Bengals (12), Chiefs (3)
The experts paint a completely different picture. Maybe it's lingering doubts around Patrick Mahomes' ankle injury, but the experts side heavily with the Bengals. That's 12 of the experts counting on Cincinnati versus just three for Kansas City.
We do tend to see experts have a bias toward picking underdogs, especially in the postseason, but there's a clear overall trend across our sources pointing to the Bengals as underrated by the betting lines this week. It's that factor that's hard to quantify. Sure, Cincinnati is no longer a "Cinderella" team, but they've got momentum on their side after winning 10 in a row and can always count on a bit of Burrow playoff magic.
Adam Taylor McKillop is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Adam Taylor also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username atmckillop. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.