Baylor vs Iowa State Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 9 Big 12 Tournament (Trust the Defenses in Kansas City)

Larry Rupp
Baylor vs Iowa State prediction, odds and betting insights for NCAA Big 12 Tournament game.
Baylor vs Iowa State prediction, odds and betting insights for NCAA Big 12 Tournament game. / AP Photos/Jerry Larson

Baylor vs Iowa State Game Info

  • 2022-23 NCAA Basketball Big 12 Tournament Game
  • No. 10 Baylor (22-9, 11-7 Big 12) vs. Iowa State (18-12, 9-9 Big 12)
  • Date: Thursday, March 9, 2023
  • Time: 12:30 PM ET
  • Venue: T-Mobile Center -- Kansas City, Missouri
  • Coverage: ESPN Networks

The Big 12 Tournament continues on Thursday with an exciting matchup between the Iowa State Cyclones and Baylor Bears. Neither squad has won a conference title since the 2018-19 season. The winner of this quarterfinal matchup will go on to face the winner of the Kansas vs West Virginia game.

Iowa State snapped a four-game losing streak by capping off the regular season with a 73-58 victory over Baylor on March 4. The Cyclones shot an impressive 54.2% from the floor and the Bears were out-rebounded by 12 boards. Which Big 12 squad will keep their conference title hopes alive today?

Baylor vs Iowa State Odds & Spread

Baylor enters this contest as a small favorite on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 12:30 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 134.5 points, which is about average compared to Thursday's projected totals.

Baylor vs Iowa State Betting Trends

  • Baylor's record against the spread is 17-14-0.
  • The Bears' ATS record as 4.5-point favorites or more is 9-10.
  • This year, 16 of Baylor's 31 games have hit the over.
  • Iowa State's record against the spread is 15-15-0.
  • The Cyclones are 4-3 as 4.5-point underdogs or more.
  • Iowa State has seen 10 of its 30 games go over the point total.
Baylor Rank Baylor AVG Iowa State AVG Iowa State Rank
54th 77.3 Points Scored 68.5 264th
177th 70 Points Allowed 62.2 16th
249th 30.7 Rebounds 30.2 267th
55th 10 Off. Rebounds 9.3 105th
18th 9.5 3pt Made 6.5 277th
72nd 14.6 Assists 14.2 100th
200th 12 Turnovers 12.2 214th

Baylor vs Iowa State Prediction & Pick

Iowa State lives and dies by its defense. The Cyclones only average 68.5 points per game (No. 233 in NCAA), but they give up just 62.2 points per game (No. 14 in NCAA) on an opponent shooting mark of 41.8% (No. 56 in NCAA). Keeping that success going against Baylor on Thursday will be a challenge.

The Bears roster three players averaging at least 14.5 points per game and rank 18th when it comes to offensive efficiency. Head coach Scott Drew's team is led by veterans and enters this one with a chip on its shoulder. Look for Baylor to come out firing in an attempt to build an insurmountable lead.

Baylor has won 11 of its last 15 games against a Big 12 foe, so take the Bears in a close showdown.

Final Score Prediction: Baylor: 67 | Iowa State: 64

Baylor vs Iowa State Best Bet

It's already been mentioned how well Iowa State has performed on defense this season. It's worth pointing out that Baylor hasn't been too shabby, either. The Bears force 13.5 turnovers per game (T-No. 95 in NCAA), which erases possessions for the opponent and causes the clock to wind down.

The total has hit the under in six of Iowa State's last seven games overall as well as in each of its last five games in March. A total of 131 points were scored when these teams last met not even a week ago and the pressure will be at an all-time high on Thursday. Expect a hard-fought, defensive battle.

Bet: Under 134.5 Points (-110)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.