Not much was expected of Amon-Ra St. Brown from a fantasy football perspective after he was taken during the fourth round of the 2021 NFL Draft. The Detroit Lions wide receiver shined with 912 yards and 5 touchdowns on 90 receptions, finishing as the No. 21 WR in PPR-scoring leagues, though.
With that being the case, it's no surprise to see St. Brown on the tail end of WR2 territory in fantasy football rankings this year. His average draft position (ADP) has him going as the 24th wide receiver off the board and as a mid sixth-round selection.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Fantasy Football Outlook
There's no denying that Amon-Ra St. Brown was the Lions' best offensive weapon down the stretch in 2021. From Weeks 13 through 18, he saw at least 10 targets in every game, averaged 93.3 receiving yards and scored five touchdowns.
The only problem is that his best production came when running back D'Andre Swift and tight end T.J. Hockenson were on the sideline with injuries. St. Brown only saw a 22% target share from Week 4 to 6, a time in which Swift and Hockenson were both healthy.
Those returning weapons are the biggest concern, but the additions of wide receiver DJ Chark (free agency) and Jameson Williams (NFL Draft) also don't help. Detroit's offense is suddenly crowded and St. Brown already showed tendencies of being a boom-or-bust option last season. He didn't score his first touchdown until Week 13 and averaged 32.0 yards per game from Week 1 through 12. St. Brown is going to have a tough time living up the level of play he established in 2021.
A down year for St. Brown doesn't exactly mean he can't finish as a reliable WR in fantasy football. It simply means that a WR3/4 finish is a much more realistic outcome than a WR2 finish is. He will be the go-to slot option on the Lions, but there's little chance he sees more than 100 targets again. St. Brown is a player to draft only if he falls a bit. He is not someone worth reaching for.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Projections
Projections from the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook expect St. Brown to finish in the middle of the pack. He's 39th to lead the NFL in receiving yards (+7500), which is a few spots lower than where he finished in 2021 with 912 yards. He's also 49th to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns (+10000). That comes as a bit of a shock considering he's tied with players like Jalen Tolbert and Pat Freiermuth. St. Brown played in 74% of Detroit's offensive snaps in 2021 and saw 7.0 targets per game. If he sees a similar role this season, a 1,000-yard season is in reach for him.
Is Amon-Ra St. Brown a Good Fantasy Football Pick?
When it comes down to it, is St. Brown someone to target in the middle rounds? Not unless he falls in your draft. Despite his ADP of WR24, he's the No. 30 wide receiver in The Duel's PPR fantasy football rankings.
Detroit played from behind for almost the entire 2021 season and it resulted in the team posting a top-12 passing play percentage (59.6%). However, the return of Swift and another offseason of work for head coach Dan Campbell should change that. That doesn't give St. Brown a ton of upside.
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Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.