Alabama vs Mississippi State Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 10 SEC Tournament (Crimson Tide Pull Away Late)

Larry Rupp
Alabama vs Mississippi State prediction, odds and betting insights for NCAA SEC Tournament game.
Alabama vs Mississippi State prediction, odds and betting insights for NCAA SEC Tournament game. / AP Photos/Sam Craft

Alabama vs Mississippi State Game Info

  • 2022-23 NCAA Basketball SEC Tournament Game
  • No. 4 Alabama (26-5, 16-2 SEC) vs. Mississippi State (21-11, 8-10 SEC)
  • Date: Friday, March 10, 2023
  • Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Bridgestone Arena -- Nashville, Tennessee
  • Coverage: ESPN

The SEC Tournament continues on Friday with an exciting matchup between the Mississippi State Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide. These two programs have combined for 10 conference titles. The winner of this quarterfinal matchup will face the victor of the Tennessee vs Missouri showdown.

Mississippi State enters as a victor in four of its last six games following a 69-68 overtime win over Florida in the second round. Meanwhile, Alabama saw its four-game winning streak snapped at the end of the regular season in a 67-61 loss to Texas A&M.

Which SEC squad will advance with a win? Let's take a closer look.

Alabama vs Mississippi State Odds & Spread

Alabama enters this contest as a clear favorite on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 1 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 138.5 points, which is about average compared to Friday's projected totals.

Alabama vs Mississippi State Betting Trends

  • Alabama has beaten the spread 17 times in 31 games.
  • The Crimson Tide have an ATS record of 9-9 as 7.5-point favorites or greater.
  • There have been 15 Alabama's games (out of 31) that went over the total this season.
  • Mississippi State's record against the spread is 16-16-0.
  • As a 7.5-point underdog or greater, the Bulldogs have two wins ATS (2-1).
  • This season, 14 of Mississippi State's 32 games have hit the over.
Alabama Rank Alabama AVG Mississippi State AVG Mississippi State Rank
6th 82.8 Points Scored 66.4 314th
157th 69.5 Points Allowed 60.7 11th
1st 40.8 Rebounds 35 32nd
16th 11.1 Off. Rebounds 11.7 4th
11th 10 3pt Made 5.3 343rd
58th 14.9 Assists 14.5 79th
325th 13.8 Turnovers 12.1 210th

Alabama vs Mississippi State Prediction & Pick

The Bulldogs relied on their defense to get by on Friday as they forced 16 turnovers and held the Gators to a 40.3% shooting mark. Mississippi State shot a dismal 14.3% from three-point range (2-of-14), which is exactly what it cannot do when facing a powerful offense like Alabama on Friday.

The Crimson Tide average a reliable 82.8 points per game (No. 4 in NCAA) largely due to the fact that they attempt 29.4 three-pointers per game. They are tied for ninth in the country with 10.0 makes from beyond the arc per game. If Alabama can find its rhythm from deep, this one could get ugly.

Alabama has won six of its last seven games against Mississippi State, so back the favorite here.

Final Score Prediction: Alabama: 76 | Mississippi State: 66

Alabama vs Mississippi State Best Bet

Remember the two regular-season meetings between these squads. Alabama was up by four points at halftime on Dec. 28 before outscoring Mississippi State 44-37 in the second half. It was then down seven points at halftime on Jan. 25 before outscoring Mississippi State 37-27 in the second half.

Those second-half jolts are typical for the Crimson Tide. Alabama averages 43.8 second-half points per game (No. 2 in NCAA) and owns a second-half average scoring margin of +7.3 (No. 4 in NCAA). Look for head coach Nate Oats to make the right adjustments to thrive late in the game once again.

Bet: Alabama Crimson Tide Second Half -3.5 (-116)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.