Alabama vs Missouri Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 11 SEC Tournament (Can Crimson Tide Hammer Tigers Again?)

Devon Platana
Alabama vs Missouri prediction, odds and betting insights for NCAA college basketball SEC Tournament game.
Alabama vs Missouri prediction, odds and betting insights for NCAA college basketball SEC Tournament game. / AP Photos/Matthew Hinton
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Alabama vs Missouri Game Info

  • 2022-23 NCAA Basketball SEC Tournament Game
  • No. 4 Alabama (27-5, 16-2 SEC) vs. No. 25 Missouri (24-8, 11-7 SEC)
  • Date: Saturday, March 11, 2023
  • Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Bridgestone Arena -- Nashville, Tennessee
  • Coverage: ESPN

Saturday, March 11's NCAA college basketball schedule features an SEC Tournament semifinal matchup between the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide and No. 25 Missouri Tigers.

Alabama was hardly challenged in its quarterfinal tilt, picking up a 72-49 victory over Mississippi State. Meanwhile, Missouri battled hard to notch its 79-71 win against ranked Tennessee, which included outscoring the Volunteers by 11 points in the second half.

Does Alabama have what it takes to make its second SEC Tournament final appearance in the last three seasons? Or will Missouri shock the world by sending Alabama packing?

Alabama vs Missouri Odds & Spread

Alabama enters this contest as the heavy favorite on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 1 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 157.5 points with the under being favored at -115 odds.

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Alabama vs Missouri Betting Trends

  • Alabama has 18 wins in 32 games against the spread this season.
  • The Crimson Tide's ATS record as 8.5-point favorites or more is 9-7.
  • There have been 15 Alabama's games (out of 32) that went over the total this year.
  • Missouri's record against the spread is 16-14-0.
  • The Tigers are yet to lose ATS (2-0) as a 8.5-point underdog or more this year.
  • Missouri has seen 16 of its 30 games hit the over.
Alabama Rank Alabama AVG Missouri AVG Missouri Rank
6th 82.5 Points Scored 80.1 21st
143rd 68.9 Points Allowed 74.7 307th
1st 40.6 Rebounds 27.8 351st
15th 11.1 Off. Rebounds 8 222nd
9th 10.1 3pt Made 9.4 23rd
49th 15.1 Assists 16.2 17th
320th 13.6 Turnovers 10.8 69th

Alabama vs Missouri Prediction & Pick

Missouri already proved back in January that it couldn't hang with the SEC leaders, falling 85-64 to Alabama at Mizzou Arena. It's hard to imagine today's outcome being much different.

On paper, the Tigers appear to have an offense (80.1 PPG, No. 17) that can hang with the Crimson Tide's attack (82.5 PPG, No. 4), but the former's mediocre defense is what separates them. While Missouri surrenders 74.7 PPG (No. 281), Alabama only gives up 68.9 PPG (No. 127).

Another reason why Alabama beat Missouri earlier this season was excellent perimeter defense. The Tigers only shot 3-of-28 (10.7%) from the three-point line in that blowout loss. If a similar performance happens, the Crimson Tide will be ready to pounce on any missed shots, proven by their country-leading 44.2 rebounds per game.

Missouri's tournament run is coming to an end this afternoon. Expect Alabama to prove why it's a top-five team in college basketball.

Final Score Prediction: Alabama: 83 | Missouri: 74

Alabama vs Missouri Best Bet

Although I expect Alabama to advance to the final round, there's a good chance that Missouri will keep things closer than expected. After all, the Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS in their last five games, as well as 2-6 ATS in their last eight March contests. Meanwhile, the Tigers have covered the spread in three of their last four games and are 4-1 ATS in this rivalry's last five matchups.

Alabama could easily blow Missouri out again, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Tigers do anything they can to ensure they aren't embarrassed again.

Bet: Missouri +9.5 (-102)


Devon Platana is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Devon Platana also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username PepeSilvia0. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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