Aaron Rodgers Fantasy Football Outlook 2022 (Will the MVP Come Crashing Back Down to Earth?)

Aaron Rodgers has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL over the last two seasons, modeled by a pair of MVP wins. He has also posted a top-12 quarterback finish in fantasy football in each of the last four years. It'll be interesting to see if he replicate his No. 6 QB finish from the 2021 season.

With that being the case, it's no surprise to see Rodgers safely in the range of a QB1 in fantasy football rankings this year. His average draft position (ADP) has him going as the 10th quarterback off the board and as an eighth-round selection.

Aaron Rodgers Fantasy Football Outlook

It's not often that reigning MVP winners are considered to be a fringe QB1 the following season. After all, Rodgers put up at least 20 fantasy points in 11 of his 16 games last year and threw 37 touchdowns compared to 4 interceptions. The obvious problem is that he lost his No. 1 target in the offseason. The departure of wide receiver Davante Adams is going to have an impact on Rodgers' fantasy ceiling. That's especially the case when it comes to the Packers' red zone opportunities.

Rodgers and Adams have connected on 64 touchdowns since the start of the 2016 season. That accounts for 33% of Rodgers' total passing touchdowns during that span and is 23 more than any other QB/WR duo in the NFL. Replacing that kind of production with unproven players and aging veterans is a lot to ask. Sammy Watkins has scored just 6 touchdowns in his last 37 games played and Randall Cobb appeared in a career-low 47% of the offensive snaps in 2021. Rodgers has to be hoping that Allen Lazard and rookie Christian Watson can take a big step in their NFL development.

In the only game of the 2021 season in which Adams didn't suit up, Rodgers posted his third-worst fantasy finish of the campaign. Defenses are going to be keen on the fact that Rodgers doesn't have his safety valve around anymore. The 38-year-old certainly has the capabilities to make the necessary adjustments, but there's only so much he can do. Seeing him fall into QB2 range with some tough opponents on the schedule wouldn't be a major shock.

Aaron Rodgers Projections

Projections from the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook expect Rodgers to take a step back in his production in 2022. He's 11th to lead the NFL in passing yards (+2500), which is one spot below where he finished the 2021 season at with 4,115 yards through the air. Rodgers is also eighth to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns (+1600). That's a title he has taken home twice in his career, most recently when he threw 48 TD in 2020. When taking Rodgers' career averages into account (259.9 passing yards per game, 1.9 passing touchdowns per game), a 4,200-yard season to go along with 30 touchdowns is not an unrealistic outcome.

Is Aaron Rodgers a Good Fantasy Football Pick?

When it comes down to it, is Rodgers someone to target in the middle rounds? Yes, but tempering expectations is the key here. He's the No. 12 quarterback in The Duel's PPR fantasy football rankings and is a suitable option for managers looking to wait at the QB position.

While Rodgers may not be a league-winning player anymore, he has still tossed for at least 3,800 yards and 25 touchdowns in each full season he has played. His safe floor will always make fantasy managers reach for him in drafts. Be careful not to be that manager in 2022.

If you've drafted Rodgers this year, make sure to check out the best Aaron Rodgers fantasy football team names for your squad.

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Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.