Oaklawn Horse Racing Picks and Rebel Stakes for Saturday 2/25/23

The Oaklawn meet continues Saturday with Championship Series races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby and Road to the Kentucky Oaks. Two of the biggest graded stakes races at Oaklawn Park are featured with the Honeybee Stakes for 3-year-old fillies in Race 10 and Risen Star Stakes for 3-year-olds in Race 11 -- a Kentucky Derby prep race. Post time to start the day is 1 p.m. ET.

As always, check the program for scratches and changes, monitor the weather, and keep an eye on the track conditions with a smaller chance of rain in the forecast.

(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races after adjusting for track, distances, and conditions).

Oaklawn Betting

Here are some of the best bets to make at FanDuel Racing today, according to numberFire and Horse Racing Nation.

1. Hazy Command and Novel Squall, Race 7

FanDuel Racing Odds: 10/1 and 20/1
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Race 7 is the $150,000 Carousel Stakes for older fillies and mares sprinting 6 furlongs. This race has a high potential payoff with Horse Racing Nation win picks including Hazy Command (10/1), Novel Squall (20/1) and Yuugirl (2/1). The numberFire algorithm picks Pretty Birdie (5/2) and Samurai Charm (3/1) from the outside No. 11 post to battle for the win.

Hazy Command has faced progressively stronger runners and she won two races back on a muddy, sealed track. The Tom Amoss-trained 4-year-old is 9-for-9 in the trifecta going today’s 6 furlongs distance, including 2-for-2 at Oaklawn.

Yuugirl was off for 8 months and won her return the end of April here over a muddy, sealed surface. She faces risk of a very fast pace and collapse, which would reward the top pick Hazy Command. Longshot Novel Squall had success and progression in her Oaklawn starts last year.

2. Wet Paint and Towhead, Race 10

FanDuel Racing Odds: 7/2 and 9/2
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Race 10 is the $300,000 Grade 3 Honeybee Stakes for 3-year-old fillies at 1 1/16 miles. This is a Kentucky Oaks Championship Series race with the top 5 finishers awarded qualifying points (50-20-15-10-5). A full field of 12 and the Horse Racing Nation (HRN Super Screener) win picks include Wetpaint (7/2) and Towhead (9/2).

Grand Love (3/1) is the top numberFire pick with HOF trainer Steve Asmussen, and she'll go to the lead with longshot Effortlesslyelegant (20/1). Gambling Girl (12/1) is a top longshot inclusion per HRN and projected in-the-money finisher by numberFire's projections. She tries Oaklawn for the first time with top jockey/trainer combo of Irad Ortiz, Jr. and Todd Pletcher. Gambling Girl hit the board in a Grade 2 race and followed that with a runner-up finish last month in a stakes.

Wet Paint is 2-for-4 with a win last month in her stakes debut. She's a deep closer and has by far the top Super Screener Energy Reserve Index. She's progressed each race with a top speed figure last time out.

Towhead is expected to move forward even off her last two wins including last month here at the same distance. She also has a top effort and runner-up finish in a stakes race over a wet surface.

3. Reincarnate and Race 11

FanDuel Racing Odds: 7/2 and 5/2
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Race 11 is the $1 million Grade 2 Rebel Stakes for 3-year-olds at 1 1/16 miles. This is a Kentucky Derby Championship Series race with the top 5 finishers awarded qualifying points (50-20-15-10-5).

Racing picks are provided in FanDuel's Rebel Stakes preview with the full field and odds. Horse Racing Nation's top win contenders include Reincarnate (7/2), Giant Mischief (5/2), and Verifying (2/1). The numberFire data also picks Reincarnate and Verifying as top win contenders.

Verifying is by Triple Crown winner Justify, and Giant Mischief by tremendous sire Into Mischief with top jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. riding. Both are conditioned by EPO trainer Brad Cox.

Gun Pilot (8/1) and Powerful (20/1) are considerations underneath in exacta, trifecta and superfecta betting.