MLB

NRFI Best Bets to Target on Monday 7/8/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
NRFI Best Bets to Target on Monday 7/8/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Best NRFI Prop Bets

Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-120)

While the Colorado Rockies are an offense that's less reliable away from Coors Field, they're getting less of a park factor downgrade at Great American Ball Park -- the fourth-best hitter's park in MLB, per Baseball Savant -- so we shouldn't write them off against the Cincinnati Reds tonight. Throw in a pair of mediocre starting pitchers, and this matchup is flashing a robust 9.5 over/under, yet we're still getting reasonable odds to back a YRFI.

Cincinnati lefty Andrew Abbott makes yet another appearance in this piece as someone to attack for a YRFI. Abbott has a modest 64.7% NRFI rate over 17 starts this season, and despite his 3.28 ERA, he's posted a 4.86 SIERA, 18.5% strikeout rate, 33.6% ground-ball rate, and 1.50 HR/9.

The Rockies should counter the southpaw with a slew of right-handed batters as five of the first six batters project to be righties. Of Abbott's 16 dingers allowed, 14 have come off righties, and likely number-five hitter Brenton Doyle has the game's second-shortest odds to hit a home run (+390).

Should Colorado's bats fail to score in the opening frame, we can still put our faith in Cincinnati against right-hander Ryan Feltner.

Making half his starts in Denver has done Feltner's ERA no favors (5.60), but even if we narrow things down to just his away starts, he's still showing an unimposing 4.65 ERA, 4.43 xFIP and 18.0% strikeout rate. Additionally, Feltner has logged a poor 52.9% NRFI rate over 17 starts, and on the road, he's been scored upon in 4 of 9 first innings.

Elly De La Cruz bats out of the two-hole and has a great chance of doing damage against the low-strikeout pitcher with either his power (.217 ISO) or speed (league-high 43 stolen bases).

Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-128)

We might need the Minnesota Twins to do the heavy lifting in this one, but this is another spot with a 9.5-run total and two potentially vulnerable pitchers.

The Chicago White Sox will have Chris Flexen on the mound, and it's been a tough campaign for Flexen all around, as he comes in with a 5.05 xFIP and 17.2% strikeout rate while giving up 1.59 HR/9 off a 47.0% fly-ball rate. Although he's actually put up an 81.3% NRFI rate in spite of those poor marks, he's still produced a lackluster 4.38 xFIP in the opening frame, and a lucky, unsustainable .163 BABIP is the real reason for his first-inning success.

The Twins have been a productive offense this season, which includes owning the league's eighth-best first-inning wRC+ (114). Usual number-two hitter Carlos Correa is having a productive campaign and is +330 to hit a home run tonight.

The White Sox are near the bottom in YRFI rate (19.6%), so we probably shouldn't get too excited about their chances, but this isn't a bad matchup for them against Chris Paddack.

Paddack has been lit up for a 5.29 ERA, and while a 4.05 xFIP points to some poor luck, the righty has really struggled with hard contact this year, resulting in an ugly 4.71 xERA. An underwhelming 20.3% K rate and 37.5% ground-ball rate have contributed to him coughing up 1.49 HR/9, and that alone should give us some added faith in Chicago's offense.

Luis Robert missed a good chunk of time earlier in this campaign, but he comes in flexing a .270 ISO and has the game's second-shortest home run odds (+310).


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