5 MLB Best Bets for Thursday 7/4/24

Brandon Gdula
Brandon Gdula@gdula13
5 MLB Best Bets for Thursday 7/4/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins

Red Sox Moneyline (-172)
Over 8.0 (-105)

The Boston Red Sox take on the Miami Marlins at 1:10 p.m. Eastern on July 4th, and Boston is in position to pick up a road win.

They're 25-16 on the road, and Miami is only 16-28 at home.

Boston is giving the ball to Nick Pivetta (4-5, 4.52 ERA, 1.22 WHIP), and Miami is rolling with Kyle Tyler (0-1, 3.38 ERA, 1.22 WHIP across just 10.2 innings).

Tyler's 3.38 ERA looks better than a 4.62 xFIP and a 4.65 SIERA through 43 batters faced, and his called-strike-plus-whiff rate (CSW%) is a lowly 20.4%, as well.

As for Pivetta, he has a 3.92 xERA and a 3.61 xFIP, suggesting better pitching numbers are ahead of him.

Boston's 103 wRC+ against righties isn't phenomenal (12th in the MLB), but Miami's 82 is 27th in the Majors.

Additionally, the over is in play here in a matchup of a solid offense against a pitcher due for regression as well as a starter in Pivetta who hasn't exactly been lights out.

Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners

Orioles Moneyline (-154)

The Baltimore Orioles (54-31) and Seattle Mariners (47-40) each lead their respective divisions, but there is a gap in records between the two -- and in run differential.

This game starts at 4:10 p.m. Eastern.

Baltimore owns a +114 run differential (third-best in the Bigs) with the Mariners at a +4 (15th).

Baltimore is going with righty Corbin Burnes (9-3, 2.28 ERA, 1.03 WHIP).

Seattle is sending out Bryce Miller (6-7, 3.88 ERA, 1.05 WHIP).

Miller is allowing a 43.4% fly-ball rate, and Burnes is keeping the ball on the ground (49.5% ground-ball rate).

Miller's underlying batted ball data is also tied to a 4.21 xERA and a 3.88 SIERA, in line with his actual ERA.

Burnes' xERA is sub-3.00 at 2.96. That's seventh-best among pitchers with at least 200 balls in play.

Baltimore hits righties better (118 wRC+; 3rd-best) than Seattle (95 wRC+; 20th) and has a pitching edge entering this tilt.

Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies

Brewers Moneyline (-142)
Over 10.5 (+100)

The Milwaukee Brewers bring a 24-22 road record to Coors Field to face a Colorado Rockies side that is only 29-56 overall and 17-25 at home.

Tobias Myers (5-2, 3.26 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) will go for the Brewers. Myers is letting up hard contact at a 25.6% rate and is holding down a 4.13 xFIP and a 4.15 SIERA. The hard-hit rate allowed ranks him 12th-best among 146 pitchers with at least 50.0 innings.

For Colorado, they're going with Cal Quantrill (6-6, 3.78 ERA, 1.30 WHIP). Quantrill's SIERA is sitting up at 4.51, and his xERA is 4.23.

One of the big differences here is the hitting.

Milwaukee's wRC+ is 114 against righties. That's fifth-best in the Majors.

Colorado is sitting down at a 79 in that split, which ranks them 29th.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.