MLB

3 FanDuel MLB DFS Value Plays for Monday 6/3/24

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD
3 FanDuel MLB DFS Value Plays for Monday 6/3/24

Finding low-salary production is one way to get a leg up on the competition in MLB DFS.

Here are some value plays to target on FanDuel for today's main slate.

Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs. Betting lines via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Betting odds as well as our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- may change after this article is published.

MLB DFS Value Plays

Matt Waldron, P, Padres ($7,900)

Matt Waldron's knuckleball has taken the MLB by storm of late. Across the last 23 innings, Waldron has given up just 19 hits and five runs, punching out 31 in the process.

The righty has upped his knuckleball usage to 42.3% over that span, hurling it a season-high 55.3% of the time in his most recent outing. He now has an absurd 39.2% K rate with the knuckleball, simultaneously giving up a .254 wOBA and .099 ISO.

Granted, we don't see many knucklers these days, and they can lend themselves to a wide range of outcomes. But Waldron's been effective of late, notching at least 28 FanDuel points in four straight outings. He's hit 50 FanDuel points twice over that stretch, so there's plenty of upside to consider him at $7.9K.

Waldron is especially appealing considering the matchup. The Los Angeles Angels have struggled mightily against righties this season, ranking 23rd in wOBA (.297) and 26th in wRC+ (90). They've struck out at the 10th-highest rate (24%) and walked at the sixth-lowest rate (7.6%) in that split.

With the San Diego Padres sporting -138 moneyline odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, Waldron could be in line for a win, too. His strikeout prop is set at just 4.5, and he has +182 odds to record 6+ strikeouts -- something he's done in four straight outings.

We project him for 28.7 FanDuel points, making him the fourth-best point-per-dollar value among pitchers (3.63 FanDuel points per $1,000).

Nolan Gorman, 2B, Cardinals ($3,000)

It took a while, but Nolan Gorman is finally heating up.

Over his last 18 games, Gorman is hitting .322 with a 1.141 OPS. Granted, he's still striking out at a 36% clip on the year, but he's made up for it with 7 home runs and 16 RBI over this hot stretch, both top-15 marks league-wide.

So, after homering and outputting 31.7 FanDuel points yesterday, I'm happy to ride the hot bat in tonight's bout with the Houston Astros.

Justin Verlander toes the rubber for the 'Stros, and he's not someone we should shy away from in DFS. Despite a 3.26 ERA, the righty has a 4.57 FIP and 4.35 SIERA. He's giving up the highest barrel (9.9%) and fly ball (57.7%) rates of his career, leading to an ugly 1.53 HR/9 allowed.

Verlander's velocity is down a tick, and his 25.9% called plus swinging strike rate (CSW%) is nothing to write home about.

That bodes well for Gorman given his recent power binge. He's been a better power hitter against righties throughout his career, posting a .226 ISO and 21.4% HR/FB rate over the past three seasons.

Gorman's +440 odds to hit a home run are tied for the second shortest in this game, and he sports +200 odds to record an RBI.

J.T. Realmuto, C, Phillies ($3,000)

After a brutal opening month, J.T. Realmuto bounced back to hit .318 in May. As the No. 2 hitter for baseball's top offense, Realmuto is allowed plenty of chances to rack up counting stats night-to-night. Coupled with his $3K salary, he's an intriguing value for tonight's date with the Milwaukee Brewers.

Milwaukee is starting righty Bryse Wilson, someone due for regression. While his 3-1 record and 3.19 ERA look strong on paper, his 5.00 FIP and 4.42 SIERA tell a different story. Wilson has surrendered high barrel (8.6%) and hard-hit (45.7%) rates, and a 10.1% K-BB rate isn't anything to be afraid of. He's been aided by a low BABIP (.244) and strand rate (86.3%), but that hasn't stopped him from giving up 1.50 HR/9.

Consequently, the Philadelphia Phillies have the slate's highest non-Coors Field implied total (4.91).

Realmuto should be able to take advantage of that. Even with his slow start, Realmuto has a 75th-percentile barrel rate (10.9%) and 88th percentile hard-hit rate (49.3%). The former is especially impactful considering barrels have the strongest correlation with FanDuel points among Statcast metrics.

He has +360 odds to hit a home run and -105 odds to record 2+ total bases.

We project him for 13.1 FanDuel points, making him the fourth-best point-per-dollar value among batters (4.37 FanDuel points per $1,000).


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.