3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Thursday 4/11/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Josh Hart Over 20.5 Pts + Reb (+100)

The New York Knicks sit just a game and a half behind the second-seed Milwaukee Bucks in the Eastern Conference standings. With just three games left in the regular season, the Knicks will need to secure a win against the Boston Celtics this evening to have a chance at second place.

Josh Hart could help them do just that, and I'd expect him to exceed 20.5 combined points and rebounds (PR) against Boston.

In the wake of a myriad of injuries, Hart has become New York's rock. In the 33 games since Julius Randle has been out, he is averaging 20.3 PR.

If we take out a pair of games from the Randle-less split in which Hart played 30 minutes or fewer, he has surpassed 20.5 PR in 20 out of 31 games (64.5% hit rate).

We should expect Hart to log upwards of 30 minutes in this contest. He's been playing a mind-boggling 40.2 minutes per game since Randle's injury, and that includes an 11-minute contest in which Hart was ejected.

I think we are getting a great deal on Hart's PR prop regardless of the matchup, but there is reason to believe he could find success against the Celtics.

The Celtics surrender the fifth-most points and the third-most rebounds to forwards per game. They're also letting up the third-most three-point makes (3PM) to this position, as well as the eighth-most three-point attempts overall. Hart, meanwhile, nets 32.2% of his points from behind the arc.

Boston could come out with a worse-than-normal defense, too, as we should expect a few of their starters to sit in what will be a meaningless game for the first-place team.

Hart has been averaging 23.1 PR since the All-Star break, including a 24.0 PR performance against the Celtics.

FanDuel Research's projections forecast 22.0 PR for Hart in this one, so I'll happily lay these even-money odds.

Herbert Jones Over 12.5 Pts + Ast (+104)

Herbert Jones is averaging 13.6 combined points and assists (PA) for the New Orleans Pelicans this season.

He has eclipsed 12.5 PA in 54.8% of his games while he's cracked 12.5 PA in 60.7% of games where he played at least 25 minutes.

With +104 odds (49.02% implied probability) available and Brandon Ingram (knee) out for the Pelicans, I see no reason to fade Jones in this market.

Ingram, who averages 20.9 points and 5.8 assists per game, leaves behind big shoes to fill. While Jones hasn't been the main player to fill this role, his production has seen an uptick with Ingram out of the lineup.

In 16 games sans Ingram, Jones is averaging 14.1 PA. Further, he nets 14.8 PA per 36 minutes when Ingram is off the court, which is good news considering he plays 35.0 minutes each night without Ingram.

New Orleans will take on the Sacramento Kings, a team that cedes the 9th-most points and 10th-most assists to forwards per game. The Kings are also letting up the 12th-most 3PM per game, while Jones scores 40.1% of his points from behind the arc and shoots the three ball at a 41.6% clip.

In four games against Sacramento this season, Jones is averaging 17.8 PA. Our projections expect similar success tonight, tapping Jones to record 15.0 PA this evening.

Dillon Brooks 2+ Made Threes (-150)

The odds on this prop might not look pretty, but the value sure is.

Dillon Brooks is averaging 31.0 minutes per game this season while our projections have him set to log 32.83 minutes in tonight's contest against the Utah Jazz.

Brooks has drained at least two three-pointers in 30 out of 44 games where he played 30 minutes or more. He is hitting the over at a 68.2% rate in this context, while these -150 odds imply just a 60.0% probability.

I think the odds are more than fair, and it doesn't hurt that Brooks has been hot and will be granted a date with the friendliest three-point matchup in the league.

Across his last four games, Brooks is averaging 3.25 3PM, clearing this prop in each game.

I'd be surprised if his luck changes against the Jazz, who let up 14.8 3PM per game, which is more than any other team in the NBA.

Utah's been even worse at defending the three as of late. Across their last 15 games, they are surrendering 16.0 3PM per game (most).

Both of these teams rank in the top 13 of pace, and a quick game should favor Brooks' shot volume. Our projections anticipate Brooks to nail 2.2 3PM versus Utah.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.