UFC Vegas 80: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of the weekend throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 11 fights at UFC Vegas 80: Dawson vs. Green, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday.

Montana De La Rosa vs. JJ Aldrich

Women's Flyweight (125 pounds)

This fight should show impactful that level of UFC competition can be.

Montana De La Rosa has had one of the toughest -- if not the toughest -- strength of schedules in women's MMA. In her last bout, she drew top-10 strawweight Tatiana Suarez. That one followed ranked battles Maycee Barber, Mayra Bueno Silva, and Viviane Araujo. All were losses with the Araujo one coming via split decision.

As a result, her analytical profile is a mess, landing just 37% of her significant strikes and defending 42%. While adding good takedown volume (1.94 per 15 minutes), she's also scored three of her five wins via submission. In her lone "break" from ranked competition, she mauled Ariane Lipski for a second-round finish.

Earlier this year, Lipski destroyed JJ Aldrich. Aldrich had a -53 striking differential, and her -0.52 striking success rate (SSR) overall isn't much hope that was a total fluke. Though coming off a win over Na Liang (0-3 UFC), Aldrich has only faced one ranked fighter in her last eight bouts, and it was a second-round loss to Erin Blanchfield. De La Rosa has faced four in her last five bouts.

Money has shifted this line in De La Rosa's direction all week, and it's pretty easy to see why. I don't think Aldrich's 65% takedown defense is sturdy enough to withstand the different level of wrestling Montana can bring, and Aldrich has not scored a UFC knockdown in her 13 career fights.

With Aldrich lacking the power to make her time on the feet count, I expect De La Rosa prevails victorious in this reprieve from ranked contenders.

Betting Verdict

• I bet De La Rosa at -130 on Tuesday, and the line has now ballooned to -136. I wouldn't eclipse -150 myself, but she's still the side I comfortably prefer to win.
• De La Rosa's inside-the-distance prop or submission prop could intriguing when she scored a finish the last time she was fighting at this competition level. We just don't have them as of late Friday afternoon.

DFS Verdict

• With this fight likely to be favored to go the distance, I truly enjoy opening the card with a contrarian favorite here. De La Rosa ($16) has topped 85 FanDuel points in four of her five UFC wins -- a ceiling that many women's divisions fighters don't have.

Mateus Mendonça vs. Nate Maness

Men's Flyweight (125 pounds)

This is the most split I am on a betting line this week, but I'm far from wanting to bet it regardless.

Mateus Mendonça is the sizable favorite in this one, and he's absolutely getting what I've dubbed "The Basharat Bump". The Afghani brothers are so sensational that simply suriving them is a testament to skill, and Mateus did that against Javid Basharat in January.

That said, it still wasn't close. Through two UFC-affiliated bouts, Mendonça has been destroyed with just a 29% striking defense and 40% takedown defense. He's also landing less than 40% of his significant strikes and 20% of his takedown attempts. He's just been plain bad.

If survival is awarded, Nate Maness should be getting even more points. Maness survived Khabib's cousin, Umar Nurmagomedov, in 2021 before losing by submission to Umar's training partner, Tagir Ulanbekov, in his flyweight debut. Maness won three straight bouts before Khabib's camp swallowed him whole, and it's reflected in a -2.71 SSR.

Maness' decent survival there shows a 75% takedown accuracy and defense entering this one, so he should have edge on the ground here. I also don't want to write him off as a striker when he's got a win by knockout and -- presumably -- elite power for this flyweight division as a lifetime 135er.

At the end of the day, these are the two worst SSRs on the card, and Maness' chin is a total unknown in this division. Some guys cutting as much weight as he does to make 125 simply can't take punches. I lean toward value with the underdog but would be not be totally surprised by any outcome here.

Betting Verdict

• I do see value in Maness when Mendonça did so poorly in his debut. UFC whiffs on prospects quite often; Maness, as a three-time winner, is absolutely a UFC-level fighter.
• That said, under 2.5 rounds is likely the best bet in this fight encompassing those longevity issues for Mendonça and the potential weight-cutting issues for Maness. We're still waiting for this prop, too.

DFS Verdict

• A volatile fight that should end inside the distance between two poor analytical fighters? What could go wrong?
  • I prefer a dart at Maness ($11) with so many better, more secure favorites to come.

Kanako Murata vs. Vanessa Demopoulos

Women's Strawweight (115 pounds)

We saw Kanako Murata's teammate struggle off a layoff exceeding three years on the last card, and ring rust could be a concern for her, too.

This is Murata's first appearance since June 2021 due to injury, and her teammate Mizuki barely squeaked by Hannah Goldy two weeks ago. Murata had a successful debut with a clean decision win over Randa Markos (7-10-1 UFC), but she broke her arm against the now-ranked Virna Jandiroba (6-3 UFC) in her second bout and was losing up to that point.

Overall, Kanako still has building blocks in her profile. Her 59% striking accuracy and 53% striking defense are solid through two fights, but she's yet to face a strong striker and used 2.40 takedowns per 15 to clear Markos. That's not changing Saturday with Vanessa Demopoulos, but you may still call Demopoulos the best striker she's faced so far.

"Lil' Monster" is a victim of UFC not having an atomweight (105 pounds) division because while her skills are there, she's significantly smaller than most of strawweight. Her 59" reach was my smallest recorded in 2022. That's predictably led to poor striking (-1.90 SSR) and her only indisputable win coming via submission.

Given the ring rust and this fight so likely to go the distance, I just don't think this price is valid when Demopoulos has survived four separate multi-time UFC winners -- some of whom were completely destroying her. Murata's tendency to wrestle is likely welcomed for Demopoulos, and it will be interesting to see Vanessa in a position where she's potentially the superior striker considering most avoid her submission danger (0.8 attempts per 15 minutes).

In a pick 'em, I'd really have to think. Given this betting line, I presume I have to bet.

Betting Verdict

• I'll fire a half-unit at Demopoulos' moneyline (+270) when she's got paths to win this fight via submission or comfort when striking. This is priced as a lottery ticket when I just don't see that lopsided of a bout.

DFS Verdict

• I think here is where it's even more obvious to target "Lil' Monster". Murata totaled just 71.4 FanDuel points in her successful debut. Against a more challenging foe proven to be durable, I'm not sure how you expect more here.

Aoriqileng vs. Johnny Munoz

Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

These two are below the threshold of comfort in one of UFC's deepest divisions, and this one sets up to be a classic "striker vs. grappler" matchup.

"The Mongolian Murderer" is a pound-for-pound top nickname in the sport, but Aoriqileng needs to win a bit more to stay with the promotion and in those rankings. He was knocked out by Aiemann Zahabi in Canada earlier this summer, and I'm a bit concerned his two UFC wins weren't very meaningful. They came over opponents now a combined 0-6 with UFC and have since been cut.

Aoriqileng made his UFC debut at 125 pounds, so he's a bit undersized for this weight class. He's had no issues with offense, landing 6.04 significant strikes per minute with 49% accuracy. He's fallen short against better competition due to poor defense when striking (48%) or defending takedowns (55%).

Poor takedown defense is something Johnny Munoz would absolutely love to see. He attempts 9.29 takedowns per 15 minutes, but against stiffer competition, he's converted just 21% of those. Munoz is pretty exclusively a grappler, but he's used a 59% striking defense to keep him mostly safe to this point -- a loss by KO to Tony Gravely (5-4 UFC) notwithstanding.

Munoz's two wins have come over opponents that are 0-4 themselves with UFC, so this is absolutely a fight where the loser gets cut. As a slightly larger guy, I'm forecasting decent efficiency for Munoz here with his wrestling, and I'll take that when Aoriqileng's -1.07 SSR hasn't been incredibly impactful anyway.

Betting Verdict

• I'm not sure I'll get to the window at -105, but I'd feel comfortable making Munoz a comfortable favorite. He's a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu when Aoriqileng has ceded eight takedowns in his last four bouts.
• With that said, Munoz's 1.4 submission attempts per 15 are significantly more than any of Aoriqileng's previous opponents. I like a dart on his submission prop above all if we get one, but it's another that FanDuel does not have available.

DFS Verdict

• You could justify either fighter in the mid-range, but forecasting Munoz to win out, he's the side I prefer at $15.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Diana Belbita

Women's Strawweight (115 pounds)
Austin's Fight of the Night

I'm expecting fireworks for 15 minutes with this one -- not filled with a ton of punching power -- pegged as a heavy favorite to go the full distance.

Former title challenger Karolina Kowalkiewicz is no stranger to that type of environment. She's landed 5.65 significant strikes per minute overall in her lengthy, 15-fight UFC career, and she's topped 115 significant strikes in four of those bouts. Kowalkiewicz has shown a little more versatility recently with a 2022 submission win over Felice Herrig, but largely, the Polish strawweight keeps things at distance to win behind her pace and excellent 58% striking defense.

Diana Belbita makes for an intriguing challenger because, physically, she could have a ranked ceiling at 115 pounds. Her 5'7" frame with a 68" reach makes her toolsy as a striker, and her takedown defense (66%) has held well compared to what you'd expect from a lanky frame. She's outlanded Kowalkiewicz per minute (6.59) with a higher striking accuracy (44%) in her smaller sample, but her striking D (53%) lags a bit behind.

While you'd expect Kowalkiewicz to have the edge in high-level experience, she's also 37 now to Belbita's 27. Plus, Belbita will have a four-inch reach advantage to hedge some efficiency concerns, and she's shown more takedown volume (0.72 takedowns per 15) of the two.

At worst with Belbita, I'm getting +124 that this decision ends up tight when the fight is overwhelmingly expected to go the distance. That's an intriguing prospect behind the better athlete who is presumably the one with fight-ending danger -- and one of two Moldovans on Saturday's card.

Betting Verdict

• I do like Belbita enough here to fire a bit at her moneyline (+124).
• It's hard to project a finish with one combined knockdown in the careers of these two strikers. I think I'll pass on the projected total at steep odds.

DFS Verdict

• This is my fight of the night, so we obviously like the floor in this environment. We've got two high-paced strikers with a reasonable assurance of points.
  • That said, I don't see the value in Kowalkiewicz's $17 salary if this thing is headed toward a decision -- and the small 20-point win bonus on FanDuel for one.

Bill Algeo vs. Alexander Hernandez

Featherweight (145 pounds)

Alexander Hernandez rocketed up the lightweight rankings with a debut win over Beneil Dariush (16-5-1 UFC) years ago, but he's failed to get any sort of momentum going since that result.

Hernandez has now dropped to featherweight, a class where he's yet to win. His only three wins (at lightweight) since the COVID break are over the famed-but-aging Jim Miller, Mike Breeden (0-4 UFC), and Chris Gruetzemacher (2-4 UFC). With just a 40% striking accuracy, Hernandez struggles to mount offense in a way that doesn't totally deplete his gas tank, having expired from strong starts against the likes of Thiago Moises and Billy Quarantillo.

On the flip side, Bill Algeo's plan is the exact opposite. The veteran weaponizes his cardio, landing 5.93 significant strikes per minute with 53% accuracy. I've yet to see him less fresh than his opponent. Though Algeo hasn't been finished since 2014 (and never in UFC), his ceiling is ultimately capped by a 46% striking D and 55% takedown D that often have him playing from behind.

The movement of this line has been fascinating. In just 24 hours, Alexander Hernandez flipped from a +116 underdog to a -118 favorite on FanDuel, indicative of some serious steam in his direction. Given the level of competition gap, there's an argument to be made there.

At higher levels of competition, Algeo's takedown defense has been abysmal. He ceded eight to Ricardo Ramos, five to Ricardo Lamas, and four to Spike Carlyle. Hernandez has posted 1.38 takedowns per 15 minutes; this projected banger could end up being a total snoozer if he gets his wrestling going.

Betting Verdict

• The line on this fight to go the distance (+110) greatly influences my read on this fight. If we get that length, that greatly favors Hernandez as the better fighter with the wrestling tools. The concern would be his cardio wilting again in a brawl.
• I had two units on Algeo at -130 earlier this week, decided against it, cashed it out to beat the line movement, and don't have a pending bet as of Friday. When that's the case, it's probably wise that it stays that way.

DFS Verdict

• Hernandez ($15) should be chalky at the lower salary since he's now favored. I need value plays, so it's hard to not fall in line with the field behind him.

Ion Cutelaba vs. Philipe Lins

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

We'll see how much Philipe Lins' domination of the senior circuit translates to a guy that was formerly ranked at 205 pounds here.

To Lins' credit, he lost consecutive bouts at heavyweight and saved his UFC career with better conditioning and a transition to light heavyweight. He's 3-0 in the division, scoring wins over Marcin Prachnio (3-5 UFC), Ovince St. Preux (13-12 UFC), and Maxim Grishin (2-3 UFC). The latter two were both at least 39 years old when they fought the Brazilian.

"Monstro" will now draw a freak athlete in his prime when facing "The Hulk", Ion Cutelaba. Cutelaba's torrid UFC start was halted once he started facing ranked competition with a combined five losses and one draw to Magomed Ankalaev, Dustin Jacoby, Kennedy Nzechukwu, Ryan Spann, and Johnny Walker. However, he did finish the now-ranked Khalil Rountree in the first round.

Cutelaba's offensive firepower is absolutely reckless. He averages 4.63 significant strikes landed per minute and a stellar 4.75 takedowns per 15 with exceptional 58% accuracy. He's run into significant issues with submission artists given his lack of jiu-jitsu knowledge, but it does help him that Lins has zero career sub attempts with UFC.

As a favorite, the 29-year-old from Moldova is a shaky proposition, but he's a significantly more dynamic athlete than the 38-year-old Lins at this stage, and his shortcomings aren't really shortcomings in this particular matchup. In addition to the submission safety, Cutelaba's striking D (48%) has also shockingly graded out higher than Lins' (44%). I didn't expect that, but Lins hides his behind a slower pace.

I don't see Lins' path outside of an unlikely submission, so Cutelaba should be handily favored here.

Betting Verdict

• Even projecting Lins for a solid 80% takedown defense, my model believes Cutelaba wins this fight 61.8% of the time when these odds imply just a 60.6% chance. It would only go downhill from there if Lins' takedown D (100% on four attempts) struggles in this expected larger sample.
  • I love hedging Cutelaba's moneyline or KO prop (+120) with Lins' submission prop (+850). It's not super likely, but the length on the odds account for that when he does have four pro wins (outside of UFC) by sub. That's the only way I see Lins winning this bout.
• Historical durability and low submission rates on both sides are absolutely weighing the model down, but it's got this fight at 80.8% to go the full distance (+245 on FanDuel).

DFS Verdict

• Cutelaba's salary ($17) is low enough to trust his upside. Lins has exceeded 85 FanDuel points in just one of his five fights, but the exception was a first-round knockout if Cutelaba's durability falters.

Drew Dober vs. Ricky Glenn

Lightweight (155 pounds)

This is right up there for the least excusable matchmaking of 2023. It's just obvious roster manipulation.

Drew Dober was on a three-fight win streak before running into the ranked Matt Frevola (6-3-1 UFC) in his last fight, which was a loss by knockout. Dober formerly had a number next to his name in this division, too. I can take issues with Dober's 51% striking defense and -0.02 SSR at his competition level, but the man knocked out Terrance McKinney and Bobby Green just last year.

The downright offensive part of this matchup is that Ricky Glenn isn't even cruising at his much lower competition level. Glenn's draw with Grant Dawson -- solely due to fatigue in the final round from Dawson -- is doing a lot of lifting to justify this fight when he was just knocked out by Christos Giagos (6-7 UFC) in his last bout. Glenn's 52% striking defense and +0.07 SSR are barely better even before adjusting for competition.

Both of these fighters have lower than a 20% takedown accuracy, so don't expect much wrestling here. If there is, it's likely a desperate shot or two from Glenn.

Glenn's first UFC tenure (2016-2018) was at featherweight, and he returned with a bang behind a 37-second knockout of Joaquim Silva. It's unfortunately looking progressively like that was a fluke, for Dober's resumé -- and sizable 1.08% knockdown rate -- are considerably favored here for good reason.

Betting Verdict

• I see Dober's knockout prop (-145) as parlayable this week, which seems insane. Glenn has looked progressively older and worse with each successive bout.
• Given Giagos had success in the first with a lower knockdown rate, a round-one knockout (+175) is worth a sprinkle, too.

DFS Verdict

• To me, Dober's striking-heavy style separates him from other MVP candidates on this card. I see him in pole position of the candidates at $22.

Joaquin Buckley vs. Alex Morono

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Alex Morono might be one of the most unheralded fighters on the UFC roster anywhere.

Perhaps due to his unassuming frame, Morono has quietly rattled off 12 wins in 17 UFC appearances, punctuated by his second-round submission of Tim Means earlier this year. Morono's punching power (0.47% knockdown rate) isn't huge, but he's got a +1.06 SSR with an excellent 57% striking defense. His 42% striking accuracy is usually a concern, but it's somehow 10 percentage points higher than Joaquin Buckley's in this one.

Buckley became a household name with a ninja-like kick on Impa Kasanganay in 2020, and the slugger's losses to Kevin Holland, Chris Curtis, and Nassourdine Imavov have aged like fine wine, but he's been a stock I've long sold. He's struggled with fatigue due to his inaccuracy, and he's not landing takedowns efficiently (34% accuracy), either. His 1.97% knockdown rate has been the great equalizer.

This fight is absolutely a volatile chin check for Morono. Niko Price, Khaos Williams, and Santiago Ponzinibbio are the three knockout artists to finish him in UFC, and Buckley's power would fit well on that list. However, if he's able to withstand Buckley's might, he's the black belt with obvious submission danger we saw last fight, and he's -- going away -- the more efficient striker per minute.

Buckley has never authored a submission attempt, which is a key detail in this fight. If a lack of comfort in that area makes him avoid exploiting Morono's 50% takedown D, that takes one more tool off out of his kit. If Buckley is therefore rendered knockout or bust, the "bust" component is quite appealing at +142.

Betting Verdict

• I couldn't feel better about my model's handicap of this fight. I've got Morono to win 50.5% of the time in a defacto pick 'em, but he's clear value as the sizable 'dog.
• It also believes -- due to the historical durability of both -- that this fight goes all 15 minutes a whopping 65.2% of the time. That result would also correlate well with a Morono win.

DFS Verdict

• Since the Kasanganay kick, Buckley has been chalky on every single slate without exception, and this one will be no different. Morono ($12) stands out with striking volume to score and submission danger in the value tier.

Joe Pyfer vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan

Middleweight (185 pounds)

It is extremely important to understand the value that UFC clearly places on Joe Pyfer before going to the proverbial betting window here.

In some ways, Pyfer's authentic uproar saved Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS) from a downward trend, and he's been handed some pretty straight-forward matchups as a result. Pyfer blew the doors off both Alen Amedovski (0-4 UFC) and the aging Gerald Meerschaert (10-9 UFC) for his first two wins. Being a friend of Dana has its perks.

Abdul Razak Alhassan likely has a neutral relationship on that front, but he's a hard fighter to pin down. ARA spent most of his UFC tenure at welterweight (170 pounds) before the constant weight-cutting issues got the best of the now-38-year-old. In four fights, he's knocked out both Alessio di Chirico (4-7 UFC) and Claudio Ribeiro (1-2 UFC) but lost decisions to Jacob Malkoun and Joaquin Buckley, allowing 13 total takedowns to that pair of foes.

There's absolutely a path to ARA's patented knockout between Pyfer's sketchy 46% striking defense. After all, Joe suffered a knockout loss to UFC veteran Dustin Stoltzfus (1-4 UFC) in his DWCS debut, but it's still decently unlikely. Though Razak Alhassan was a physical freak in his prime, his physical advantages just aren't as frightening at this larger weight class. For example, he's ceding four inches of height and two in reach to Pyfer here.

These odds sit where they do because of Pyfer's massive 3.03% knockdown rate thus far, but I also wouldn't sleep on Pyfer replicating how other middleweights have trounced Razak Alhassan when he's converted both takedown attempts.

Betting Verdict

• Pyfer's betting line has sailed beyond the required point of desirability for me given his limited experience, but I do believe he wins this fight comfortably inside the full distance.
• Because of Razak Alhassan's all-in style, this fight is -600 to not go the full distance, and it's hard to argue with that when his opponent is yet to see a fifth minute in UFC.

DFS Verdict

• Here's where I'll get my exposure to Pyfer ($21). He should be the most popular fighter on the slate coming off consecutive first-round finishes and holding these betting odds, but I still want to be overweight at MVP and in flex spots.

Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green

Lightweight (155 pounds)
Five-Round Main Event

For as well as Bobby Green has resurrected a middling UFC career, this main event isn't about him.

Green absolutely trounced the scuffling Tony Ferguson in July, capped by a third-round submission. The 37-year-old got back on track after a no contest against Jared Gordon followed consecutive losses by knockout to Drew Dober and Islam Makhachev (on short notice).

He should be fighting near the rankings, which is why he's scored some lopsided wins in recent years. Green has amassed a card-best +2.47 SSR with insane marks in striking accuracy (52%) and defense (62%). Frankly, he was laughably ahead of his competition post-COVID, but his low knockdown rate (0.22%) just didn't give UFC the explosive moments to see it.

The problem for him is that the grappling of Grant Dawson might be the best in this lightweight division. In consecutive fights, he's cleared through Damir Ismagulov (5-2 UFC), former Olympic medalist Mark O. Madsen (4-1 UFC), and the aforementioned Gordon (8-5 UFC) with a combined 12 takedowns.

All three of those fighters entered their bout with Dawson with at least a 70% takedown defense (like Green at 72%), and they all left their matchup with a mark at or below that threshold. There's takedown defense, and then there's defending the American Top Team product's relentless attack.

The "red flag" on Dawson was a draw in 2021 where, in a fight he was dominating, Dawson waned badly to settle for that result against the fading Ricky Glenn, but he's since answered that fight with those three dominant performances extending into third round. I'm not particularly concerned at this stage.

Personally, Green's lack of punching power takes away the drama of this fight. While waiting for a home-run hitter to take a swipe at Dawson's 46% striking defense, that's just not how "King" has won fights historically.

Betting Verdict

• Green hasn't been submitted since 2009, which personally adds a bit of intrigue to Dawson's KO/TKO (+500) number. Those aren't just for standing KOs; ground-and-pound attacks work the same.
• Dawson's methodical pace (likely to avoid a result of the Glenn mishap) adds some intrigue to the total. My model has this at 67.3% to go the distance, but I feel the lopsided nature of this fight has me leaning toward under 4.5 rounds (-220).

DFS Verdict

• Operating as a ground technician can hurt Dawson ($23) here. He was limited to 61 FanDuel points despite controlling 82.7% of the Ismagulov fight. I still think an early finish comes, opening the door for him as a weaker MVP candidate than others mentioned.

Looking for the latest UFC odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to see the lines for all upcoming fights.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.