NBA Play-In Tournament: Lakers vs. Pelicans Betting Picks

Riley Thomas•_riley8

13d

The NBA postseason is in full effect this week with the Play-In Tournament taking place. In the Western Conference, the Los Angeles Lakers visit the New Orleans Pelicans in the 8 seed vs. 7 seed matchup on Tuesday, followed by the Golden State Warriors and the Sacramento Kings in the 9th place against 10th place clash.

Let's focus on the Lakers-Pelicans as these are two teams that entered the season with playoff expectations. According to FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA playoff odds, these teams are the clear favorite to make the playoffs in the West. Los Angeles is -550 to earn a postseason berth while New Orleans is -450.

The goal is simple for the Lake Show and Pels: win and you're in. Which team could have the upper hand and earn their playoff berth tonight?

Let's dive into the odds at FanDuel, followed by a breakdown of each team and the best bet for this clash.

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Play-In Tournament Betting Picks

Lakers-Pelicans Betting Odds

Date and Time: Tuesday, April 16th at 7:30 p.m. ET

Spread: Pelicans -1.5 (-110)

Total: 224.5

Moneyline:

Lakers: +102
Pelicans: -120

Lakers vs. Pelicans Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings, pace, and shot distribution via DunksAndThrees.

Lakers:
- nERD: 54.1 (17th)
- Adjusted Offensive Rating: 115.9 (15th)
- Adjusted Defensive Rating: 114.9 (16th)
- Pace: 101.2 (4th)
- Against-the-Spread Record: 38-44
- Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
  - Rim: 37.6% (2nd) - 68.2% (1st)
  - Mid: 26.6% (18th) - 40.5% (24th)
  - 3PT: 35.8% (29th) - 37.7% (8th)
Pelicans:
- nERD: 64.4 (5th)
- Adjusted Offensive Rating: 116.7 (11th)
- Adjusted Defensive Rating: 112.1 (6th)
- Pace: 98.5 (16th)
- Against-the-Spread Record: 43-37-2
- Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
  - Rim: 35.5% (10th) - 62.7% (18th)
  - Mid: 27.2% (22nd) - 44.4% (12th)
  - 3PT: 37.3% (22nd) - 38.3% (4th)

Lakers vs. Pelicans Best Bet

Pelicans -1.5 (-110)

Despite the Pelicans carrying better marks in most efficiency ratings, the Lakers have had their way in this matchup. Los Angeles won three of four head-to-head clashes during the regular season while going 3-1 against the spread (ATS).

However, the Lakers had their star duo of LeBron James and Anthony Davis available for each game. This may not be the case tonight as Davis is questionable with back spasms.

The Pelicans have an exceptional paint attack led by Zion Williamson, who totaled 22.9 points per game (PPG) in the regular season. Williamson has attempted 75.0% of his shots within five feet of the rim. New Orleans also logs the 10th-most points in the paint per game while carrying the 10th-best mark in shots at the rim.

If the Lakers are without Davis, this would be a huge blow to their interior defense. The four-time All-Defensive player was tied for the fourth-most blocks per game in the NBA (2.3).

The regular-season matchups felt a bit fluky. Despite the Pels sitting in the top 10 of paint offense and defense, they still managed to lose the paint battle in every matchup. Keep in mind that L.A. gives up the 10th-most points in the paint.

Additionally, New Orleans has the second-best mark in opponent three-point percentage (34.9%), yet the Lakers shot 40.9% from three in this season's collisions. This is another category that could finally mirror each team's season-long stats. If Los Angeles stays hot from three, it could be of little concern with the Lakers attempting the fewest three-point shots per game.

Ultimately, I'm leaning on the season-long metrics. The Pelicans hold better marks in numberFire's nERD-based power rankings, adjusted offensive rating, and adjusted defensive rating. You name it, New Orleans probably carries the best ranking when it comes to efficiency.

L.A. has had New Orleans' number all season, but I believe that will finally come to an end tonight. The -110 odds imply the Pelicans have a 52.4% chance of covering the spread. numberFire is giving New Orleans a 68.9% chance of covering.

The Lakers have also been a much different team on the road, carrying a 19-21 record compared to 29-14 at home. Los Angeles is 18-22 ATS on the road (seventh-worst), providing even more support for the Pels cover.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.