EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 34: Will Arsenal Bounce Back Against Wolves?

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After a week full of exciting Champions League action, the final stretch of the EPL season continues with Matchweek 34 this weekend.

Matchweek 34, which runs from Saturday to Sunday and features seven matches, is highlighted by two important fixtures in the title race -- Arsenal at Wolves and Liverpool at Fulham.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?

EPL Betting: Matchweek 34

Bournemouth at Aston Villa (10:00 a.m. ET Sunday)

Aston Villa Moneyline (-130)

Coming off their impressive 2-0 win over Arsenal last weekend, Aston Villa still have plenty of work to do to hold off Tottenham and finish in the top four. They sit three points ahead of Spurs -- who have a game in hand -- with a slight edge on goal differential (+3). Every result is critical for Villa as they look to book their place in next season's Champions League.

Since the start of March, Villa's results have been all over the place. In seven matches, they have three wins, two draws, and two losses. Their losses came against Tottenham and Manchester City, but their draws came against Brentford and West Ham.

During this stretch, their expected goal (xG) metrics, per FBRef, have not been great. Across those seven matches combined, they sit at 7.6 xG created to 13.3 xG conceded. Thankfully for Villa, they've been overperforming those numbers, with 12 goals scored and 14 goals allowed. They conceded four goals each to Manchester City and Tottenham.

Despite the concerning underlying metrics for Unai Emery's side, I like Villa's outlook on Saturday. Their struggles have come primarily against better opposition, a concern they answered with their win over an excellent Arsenal side in their most recent match. They are also at home, where they have been a much better team this season. Villa's xG differential per 90 minutes at home (+0.70) this season ranks sixth in the league, compared to their -0.30 xG differential/90 on the road, which ranks ninth. Their 40 home goals this season ranks fourth with one fewer game played than the three sides above them.

Bournemouth has been decent on the road. Their xG/90 away from home (-0.29) ranks eighth, but they have struggled to earn results. They have just five wins in their 15 road fixtures. Of those five wins, three came against bottom-four sides, and only one -- at Manchester United -- came against a side currently in the top half of the table.

Playing at home, in need of a result, and coming off a confidence building win over the Gunners, I expect Aston Villa to earn all three points on Sunday.

Arsenal at Wolves (2:30 p.m. ET Saturday)

Arsenal - 1.5 (+106)

To put it nicely, the Gunners are having a tough week. After an incredibly impressive start to 2024, they are now winless in their last three matches. Those results delt a big blow to their EPL title chances and eliminated them from the Champions League. To remain in the three-team race for the title, they can't afford this slump to extend another game.

The good news for Arsenal is that their opponent this weekend will be well below the level of the two sides -- Bayern Munich and Aston Villa -- that they have faced in their last three matches. Wolves enter this fixture winless in their last five matches across all competitions. Their opposition in those games included Coventry City, Aston Villa, Burnley, West Ham, and Nottingham Forest. Arsenal, to say the least, will be a large step up in difficulty.

Wolves did earn a 2-1 win over Manchester City back in late September, but outside of that, they have struggled against top-four sides -- sporting a combined record of one win, one draw, and three losses in the split. They have also been one of the worst home teams in the EPL this season. Thier xG differential/90 at home (-0.30) ranks 18th, ahead of only West Ham (-0.31) and Sheffield United (-0.78). Arsenal is the best road team in the league, with an xG differential/90 of +1.09, slightly above Manchester City (+0.98) in second and well above Liverpool in third (+0.28).

Arsenal hasn't been just a good team this season -- they have been an elite one. They lead the EPL in xG differential/90 (+1.27) and goals allowed/90 (0.78) and rank second in goals scored/90 (2.22). The Gunners have a history of fading down the stretch in recent seasons, but this team is a step above those squads.

If they want to remain in the title race, Arsenal can't afford another slip up. The gap between Wolves and the Gunners is large, and with Arssenal's form this season and what's on the line, I expect them to bounce back on Saturday.

Player Props

Bukayo Saka to Score or Assist (-130): If Arsenal are going to bounce back, I expect Saka to be a big reason why. In his 30 EPL games this season, Saka is averaging 5.4 combined shots and chances created per match. In the reverse fixture against Wolves in December, he recorded a goal, three shots, and four chances created. He struggled against Bayern on Wednesday, but in his three matches before that, he combined for two goals, nine shots, and seven chances created.

Eberechi Eze to Score or Assist (+130): Eze is coming off an exceptional performance at Liverpool, one where he recorded a goal, two shots, and three chances created. He is averaging 4.7 combined shots plus chances created per match this season. West Ham sit in eighth on the table but have just one win in their last six matches across all competitions with 1.83 goals allowed per match during that stretch. The Hammers have allowed the fourth-most away goals (33) this season.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.