Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for NBA Playoffs Game 3 (Defense Stands Out in Minneapolis)
By Larry Rupp
The 2022-23 NBA Playoffs continue on Friday with Game 3 of the first round series between the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game Info
- Date: Friday, April 21, 2023
- Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Target Center -- Minneapolis, Minnesota
- Coverage: ESPN, BSN, and ALT
Each of the first two games of this series featured the Nuggets pulling away at some point in the second half. Jamal Murray has been the star of the show so far as he dropped a game-high 24 points and 8 assists in a 109-80 Game 1 victory before racking up 40 points in a 122-113 Game 2 win.
Will the Timberwolves be able to bounce back in Game 3 on their home floor? Or will Denver take a commanding 3-0 series lead?
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds & Spread
- All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: MIN: (+118) | DEN: (-138)
- Spread: MIN: +2.5 (-110) | DEN: -2.5 (-110)
- Total: 223 -- Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
The Nuggets enter this contest as small road favorites on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 9:30 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 223 points, with each side available at -110 odds.
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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Betting Trends
- The Nuggets went 36-44-2 ATS last season.
- Against the spread, as underdogs of 2 points or more, the Timberwolves went 15-15 last season.
- Last season, the combined scoring went over the point total 47 times in Nuggets games.
- Last season, 49 of the Timberwolves' 82 games went over the point total.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction & Pick
The Nuggets have flexed their muscles in the second half of each of the first two games, outscoring the Timberwolves by 18 in the third quarter of Game 1 and by 11 in the fourth quarter of Game 2. That should come as no surprise as Denver ranks eighth in second half average scoring margin (+1.1).
Despite all of that, the Timberwolves have a clear chance to get back in this series as the competition shifts to the Target Center on Friday. Minnesota has taken down Denver in both head-to-head games in Minneapolis this season, emerging victorious by scores of 124-111 (Jan. 2) and 128-98 (Feb. 5).
The Nuggets have also lost four of their last five games on the road and average 7.0 fewer points per game (119.2 vs 112.2) when away from Ball Arena. The Timberwolves rank 10th in defensive efficiency at home, showing they can get the job done on that end when it matters most.
Final Score Prediction: Timberwolves: 111 | Nuggets: 107
Check out more NBA Playoffs content at The Duel:
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Best Bet
This game lines up as a defensive battle. Yes, Game 2 saw 235 total points, but each side shot over 50.5% from the floor, 45.0% from three-point range and 80.0% from the free throw line. Those are not marks that can be replicated with relative ease on Saturday night.
Keep in mind the total has hit the under in 12 of Denver's last 15 games overall as well as in four of Minnesota's last five games overall. The under has also cashed in 12 of the Timberwolves' last 17 home games. Look for both coaching staffs to make the right adjustments after a crazy Game 2.
Bet: Under 223 Total Points (-110)
Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.