Timberwolves vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for NBA Playoffs Game 1 (Ball Arena Crowd Gives Edge to Denver)

The 2022-23 NBA Playoffs continue with more first-round action on Sunday, April 16, featuring Game 1 of the Western Conference series between the Minnesota Timberwolves (42-40) and Denver Nuggets (53-29).

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Game 1 Info

• Date: Sunday, April 16, 2023
• Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Ball Arena -- Denver, Colorado
• Coverage: TNT

The Timberwolves and Nuggets were evenly matched during their regular season series, splitting their four meetings. What's interesting is that the home team won each of those encounters, leaving time to tell if that trend continues in the postseason.

Can the Timberwolves shock the basketball world on the road? Or will the Nuggets further cement why they're the Western Conference's top team?

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Odds & Spread

• All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
• Moneyline: MIN: (+245) | DEN: (-300)
• Spread: MIN: +7.5 (-112) | DEN: -7.5 (-108)
• Total: 224.5 -- Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

The Nuggets enter this contest as clear home favorites on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 10:30 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 224.5 points with both sides available at -110 odds. 

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Betting Trends

• Minnesota is 4-1 straight up in its last five games.
• Denver is 12-3 straight up in its last 15 home games.
• Minnesota is 5-0 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games.
• Denver is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games.
• The total has hit the under in five of Minnesota's last six games.
• The total has hit the under in 11 of Denver's last 13 games.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Prediction & Pick

Winning at Ball Arena won't be easy for the Timberwolves. Not only did they lose both trips to Denver this season, but they've also lost eight of their last 10 road games against the Nuggets. That's not even to mention how Denver defeated Minnesota by 34 points the last time they collided in the Mile High City back in February.

The Timberwolves also have to deal with NBA MVP candidate Nikola Jokic, who's had a ton of recent success against them. The Serbian superstar is averaging 28.1 points, 13.7 rebounds and 9.1 assists in his last nine games against the T-Wolves, finishing with a triple-double in each of his last two meetings with them.

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At the end of the day, I don't see the Nuggets opening the series with a loss. They only lost seven times at Ball Arena all season, averaging a plus-9.8 scoring margin there -- the third-highest home mark in the NBA. The Timberwolves will push, but it won't be good enough.

Final Score Prediction: Nuggets: 117 | Timberwolves: 110

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Best Bet

Even though both sides have experienced the under more often than not recently, I like the over on the 224.5-point total as the best bet. After all, it's a number that the Timberwolves and Nuggets surpassed in each of their last seven encounters, averaging 243 points over that stretch.

With the Nuggets looking to remain dominant at home and the Timberwolves playing with a chip on their shoulder, expect both sides to step up, hitting the over in the process.

Bet: Over 224.5 Points (-110)

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Devon Platana is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Devon Platana also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username PepeSilvia0. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.