Lightning vs Maple Leafs Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for NHL Playoffs Game 5 (Goals Keep Coming as Leafs Move On)

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds and betting insights for NHL Playoffs Game 5.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds and betting insights for NHL Playoffs Game 5. / AP Photo/Noah K. Murray

The 2022-23 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs continue on Thursday, April 27, including Game 5 of the Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs series out East.

Lightning vs Leafs Game 5 Info

  • Series: Maple Leafs lead 3-1
  • Date: Thursday, April 27, 2023
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Scotiabank Arena -- Toronto, Ontario
  • Coverage: TBS

The Lightning were well on their way to tying the series in Game 4, leading 4-1 at the second intermission. Unfortunately, things went off the rails after that. The Maple Leafs scored three goals in less than seven minutes in the third period to tie the game before Alexander Kerfoot scored in overtime, giving Toronto a 5-4 victory and the 3-1 series lead.

Lightning vs Leafs Odds & Spread

  • All NHL betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
  • Moneyline: TBL: (+130) | TOR: (-156)
  • Spread: TBL: +1.5 (-184) | TOR: -1.5 (+150)
  • Total: 6.5 -- Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

The Maple Leafs enter this contest as home favorites on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 7 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 6.5 goals with both sides sitting at -110 odds.

Lightning vs Leafs Betting Trends

  • Tampa Bay is 2-7 straight up in its last nine games.
  • Toronto is 6-1 straight up in its last seven games against the Atlantic Division.
  • The total has hit the over in each of Tampa Bay's last five road games.
  • The total has hit the over in four of Toronto's last six home games against Tampa Bay.

Lightning vs Leafs Prediction & Pick

As good as the Lightning are on paper, they just haven't gotten the results this series. They've allowed a whopping 19 goals through four games and are now 3-7 straight up in their last 10 playoff games. The fact that they blew a three-goal lead Monday night just solidifies the fact that Jon Cooper's team can't be trusted at the moment.

The momentum is fully on the Maple Leafs' side after back-to-back comeback wins. They now have a chance to advance past the first round for the first time since 2004. A victory in Game 5 would send a message to the rest of the NHL that the Maple Leafs are for real. With the way they're playing, I don't see Auston Matthews & Co. allowing the Lightning to feel much hope.

The Lightning will press as they attempt to keep their postseason hopes alive, but the Maple Leafs won't break. Toronto's top players are clicking at the right time and the latest gutsy performance proves that Sheldon Keefe's team can't be denied.

Look for the Maple Leafs to finish things off Thursday.

Final Score Prediction: Maple Leafs: 5 | Lightning: 3

Lightning vs Leafs Best Bet

Taking the over on the 6.5-goal total is a no-brainer with how this series has been going. The Lightning and Maple Leafs have surpassed that number every game thus far, averaging 8.75 goals per contest. Furthermore, the over is 8-1 in Tampa Bay's last nine outings, as well as 4-1 in Toronto's previous five at home.

With neither team getting reliable goaltending, brace yourself for more goals than expected.

Bet: Over 6.5 Goals (-110)

Devon Platana is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Devon Platana also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username PepeSilvia0. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.