Leafs vs Lightning Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for NHL Playoffs Game 4 (Can Tampa Bay Even the Series?)

The 2022-23 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs continue on Monday, April 24, including Game 4 of the Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning series.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 4 Info

• Series: TOR leads 2-1
• Date: Monday, April 24, 2023
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Amalie Arena -- Tampa Bay, FL
• Coverage: TBS

Game 3 between these rivals wasn't without theatrics. The Lightning were on their way to a 2-1 series lead before Maple Leafs center Ryan O'Reilly tied the game, 3-3, with one minute left in regulation. O'Reilly then assisted on Moran Rielly's overtime game-winning goal, giving Toronto the 4-3 win and a 2-1 series lead.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Odds & Spread

• All NHL betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
• Moneyline: TOR: (-114) | TBL: (-105)
• Spread: TOR: -1.5 (+202) | TBL: +1.5 (-250)
• Total: 6.5 -- Over: (-104) | Under: (-118)

The Maple Leafs enter this contest as road favorites on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 7:30 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 6.5 goals with the Under being favored at -118 odds.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Betting Trends

• Toronto is 4-1 straight up in its last five games against Tampa Bay.
• Tampa Bay is 2-7 straight up in its last nine games against the Atlantic Division.
• The total has hit the over in four of Toronto's last five games.
• The total has hit the over in each of Tampa Bay's last nine home games against Toronto.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Prediction & Pick

As talented as the Lightning are, I'm not sure if they can even the series tonight. For starters, they're not getting strong play from goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy. The former Vezina Trophy winner has a .853 save percentage and a 4.22 goals-against average through the first three games. By comparison, Toronto's Ilya Samsonov has played to a .918 SV% and 2.17 GAA in the last two.

Furthermore, the Lightning's special teams aren't playing well either. The power play is 0-for-6 over the last two games after scoring 4 PP goals in Game 1. Meanwhile, the penalty kill is only operating at 69.2% in this series.

The Maple Leafs' group of star players — Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitchell Marner, etc. — have played to their potential, whereas the Lightning's group has been inconsistent. With a chance to seize a 3-1 lead and move one step closer to advancing to the second round, I don't see Toronto letting this opportunity pass it by.

Final Score Prediction: Maple Leafs: 4 | Lightning: 3

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Best Bet

Taking the Over on the 6.5-goal total is a no-brainer as the best bet. The Maple Leafs and Lightning have already combined for 26 goals this series, going over 6.5 in each contest. That trend has a great shot at continuing seeing as how the last nine Toronto-Tampa Bay matchups have all gone over tonight's total, averaging 7.7 goals per game during that span.

The Under might be favored, but it's clear that backing the Over is the right call.

Bet: Over 6.5 Goals (-104)

Devon Platana is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Devon Platana also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username PepeSilvia0. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.