Duke vs Tennessee Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 18 NCAA Tournament Game (Blue Devils Secure Sweet 16 Spot)

Larry Rupp
Duke vs Tennessee prediction, odds and betting insights for NCAA Tournament game.
Duke vs Tennessee prediction, odds and betting insights for NCAA Tournament game. / AP Photos/Phelan M. Ebenhack
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Duke vs Tennessee Game Info

  • 2022-23 NCAA Tournament Game
  • No. 12 Duke (27-8) vs. No. 20 Tennessee (24-10)
  • Date: Saturday, March 18, 2023
  • Time: 2:40 PM ET
  • Venue: Amway Center -- Orlando, Florida
  • Coverage: CBS

The 2023 NCAA Tournament continues on Saturday with a thrilling Round of 32 matchup between the No. 5 Duke Blue Devils and No. 4 Tennessee Volunteers. Duke is aiming to earn its 33rd Sweet 16 appearance, while Tennessee is looking to advance past the Round of 32 for the first time since 2019.

Duke picked apart No. 12-seeded Oral Roberts in a 74-51 first round win as it started the game on a dazzling 15-0 run and never looked back. Meanwhile, Tennessee didn't look nearly as dominant in a 58-55 win over No. 13-seeded Louisiana, but did see five players score at least 8 points on the night.

Duke vs Tennessee Odds & Spread

Duke enters this contest as a small favorite on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 2:40 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 127.5 points, which is below average compared to Saturday's projected totals.

Duke vs Tennessee Betting Trends

  • Duke is 16-19-0 against the spread this year.
  • The Blue Devils have an ATS record of 13-13 as 2.5-point favorites or greater.
  • This season, 14 of Duke's 35 games have hit the over.
  • Against the spread, Tennessee is 17-17-0 this year.
  • The Volunteers don't have a win ATS (0-2) as a 2.5-point underdog or greater this season.
  • There have been 14 Tennessee games (out of 34) that went over the total this season.
Duke Rank Duke AVG Tennessee AVG Tennessee Rank
157th 72.6 Points Scored 71.4 184th
30th 63.6 Points Allowed 57.9 3rd
13th 35.9 Rebounds 35.6 21st
20th 10.9 Off. Rebounds 11.3 13th
238th 6.8 3pt Made 7.7 137th
66th 14.7 Assists 16.9 8th
132nd 11.4 Turnovers 11.5 143rd

Duke vs Tennessee Prediction & Pick

Duke entered the tournament as one of the hottest teams in the country and kept that momentum going by shooting 48.4% from the floor (37.5% from three-point range) on Thursday. The Blue Devils' defense stood out the most, though, as it held Oral Roberts to a dismal 30.2% shooting percentage.

Head coach Jon Scheyer's team is now in the midst of a scary 10-game winning streak. Tennessee's defense stepped up against Louisiana, but its offense went 4-of-16 from deep. Inefficiency from beyond the arc (No. 243 in three-point shooting percentage) has been a weakness all season long.

The Volunteers are elite in terms of defending the perimeter (No. 1 in opponent three-point shooting), but they can be picked apart around the rim at times. They have allowed an opponent two-point percentage of 48.5% in the last three games. Look for Kyle Filipowski and Dereck Lively to take over.

Final Score Prediction: Duke: 67 | Tennessee: 61

Duke vs Tennessee Best Bet

Duke has looked like a Final Four team over the last month and fading a squad with momentum is rarely a good idea. The Blue Devils are 5-0 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games overall and 8-0 ATS in their last eight games in March. They have won five straight games against the SEC as well.

Tennessee is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games overall and 1-4 ATS in its last five games on a Saturday. Duke is shooting 48.8% from the floor over its last three games and will get to the bucket in this one. Expecting a Volunteers team that put up only 58 points in Round 1 to keep up here seems unrealistic.

Bet: Duke Blue Devils -2.5 (-120)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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