Baylor vs TCU Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for February 11 (Don't Expect a Big 12 Shootout in Fort Worth)

Baylor vs TCU Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for February 11 (Don't Expect a Big 12 Shootout in Fort Worth)

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Baylor vs TCU Game Info

  • 2022-23 NCAA Basketball Regular Season Game
  • No. 14 Baylor (18-6, 7-4 Big 12) vs. No. 17 TCU (17-7, 6-5 Big 12)
  • Date: Saturday, February 11, 2023
  • Time: 4:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Schollmaier Arena -- Fort Worth, Texas
  • Coverage: ESPN2

The 2022-23 college basketball season continues on Saturday with an exciting matchup between the No. 14 Baylor Bears and No. 17 TCU Horned Frogs. Baylor took down Oklahoma by a score of 82-72 on Wednesday to earn its eighth win in its last nine games. Keyonte George tallied a team-high 23 points.

Meanwhile, TCU fell short in an 82-61 loss to Kansas State on Tuesday and has now dropped three of its last four games. Senior Damion Baugh led the Horned Frogs with 16 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists. Will TCU be able to bounce back on Saturday or will Baylor keep cruising in the Big 12?

Baylor vs TCU Odds & Spread

Baylor enters this contest as a slight road favorite on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 4 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 149.5 points, which is above average compared to Saturday's projected totals.

Baylor vs TCU Betting Trends

  • Baylor's record against the spread is 13-11-0.
  • The Bears are 10-10 as 1.5-point favorites or more.
  • Baylor has seen 13 of its 24 games hit the over.
  • TCU's record against the spread is 13-11-0.
  • The Horned Frogs' ATS record as 1.5-point underdogs or more is 5-3.
  • TCU has seen 14 of its 24 games go over the point total.
Baylor Rank Baylor AVG TCU AVG TCU Rank
31st 79 Points Scored 76.6 64th
175th 69.2 Points Allowed 66.6 89th
175th 31.9 Rebounds 33.7 82nd
38th 10.5 Off. Rebounds 10.3 47th
26th 9.2 3pt Made 5.1 349th
49th 15.2 Assists 16.2 20th
143rd 11.7 Turnovers 11.7 143rd

Baylor vs TCU Prediction & Pick

It's worth noting that this isn't the same TCU team that was racking up blowout wins at the beginning of the season. The Horned Frogs are without leading scorer Mike Miles due to a hyperextended knee. He was averaging 18.1 points per game on a reliable 53.2% shooting mark before suffering the injury.

Miles is listed as questionable for Saturday as Eddie Lampkin as been ruled out for the Horned Frogs. TCU is in an injury rut and now has to go toe-to-toe with a Baylor offense that averages a reliable 79.0 points per game (No. 22 in NCAA) on a 44.8% shooting percentage. It just won't be able to keep up.

Baylor has won 15 of its last 20 games against TCU, so back the Bears on the road on Saturday.

Final Score Prediction: Baylor: 74 | TCU: 69

Baylor vs TCU Best Bet

There's a bit of value in backing Baylor as a slight favorite here, but there's even more value in backing a low-scoring game. TCU knows that defense will be the key to winning this matchup. The Horned Frogs rank 16th in defensive efficiency and are not healthy enough to keep up in a Big 12 shootout.

Expect the Horned Frogs to play with a slow pace and take it one possession at a time. Baylor will counter by waiting it out instead of settling for contested shots. The total has hit the under in four of Baylor's last six games overall as well as four of TCU's last six games against a Big 12 opponent.

Bet: Under 149.5 Points (-110)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.