Amanda Nunes vs Irene Aldana Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for UFC 289 (Nunes Turns in Vintage Performance)

The UFC is never shy about loading the summer with big fight cards, and the 2023 set of summer pay-per-views kicks off with UFC 289. There may only be one title fight on the card this weekend, but it's a big one between Amanda Nunes and Irene Aldana.

Here's everything that fans and bettors need to know about the women's bantamweight championship matchup.

Nunes vs Aldana Fight Info, Date & Time

UFC 289 — Main Event Women's Bantamweight Championship
Amanda "The Lioness" Nunes (22-5-0, 13 KO, 4 Submission) vs. Irene Aldana (14-6-0, 8 KO, 3 Submission)
Date: Saturday, June 10, 2023
Fight Time: This will be the final fight on the main card, which begins at 10 p.m. ET.
Venue: Rogers Center — Vancouver, BC, Canada
Coverage: ESPN+, PPV

Nunes is set for her first bantamweight title defense since reclaiming the belt from Juliana Pena, whose 2021 upset was Nunes' first loss since 2014. Aldana has had a long road to her first title fight, as this will be her 12th time setting foot in the octagon and her first time doing so in a five-round fight.

Nunes vs Aldana Odds & Prop Bets

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Nunes vs Aldana Prediction

With all due respect to Irene Aldana, who has been on a tear with KO/TKO wins in three of her last four fights, this one just isn't going to be close.

Outside of a close fight with Valentina Shevchenko, we've only really seen Nunes look human once in her title reign when she lost the belt to Juliana Pena. Nunes had recently dealt with a bout of COVID heading into that fight, and an absolute mauling in the rematch removed all doubt about whether Nunes was still on top of her game.

Nunes' well-roundedness is probably what makes her most dangerous, and that's an issue for Aldana. Just three fights ago she was taken down five times and gave up over 5 minutes of control time in a decision loss to Holly Holm, who isn't nearly the offensive grappler Nunes is. And when Nunes faces a game striker, she's not shy about leaning on her grappling, like when she took Germaine de Randamie down 8 times on 11 attempts.

Nunes wins, and it's not close.

Nunes vs Aldana Best Bet

As I mentioned above, when the easiest path to victory is grappling, Nunes is more than happy to take it. I mentioned the GDR fight, and when she was outsized against Felcia Spencer she mixed plenty of grappling into that mauling (6 takedowns on 7 attempts, 8 minutes of control time).

But that's not how I think she ends the fight. Her pressure, including on the ground, will wear Aldana down. For a striker that tends to get hit a lot (5.71 significant strikes absorbed per minute), things can go south very quickly when they're tired.

Whether it ends up being ground-and-pound from a grappling attack or simply overwhelming Aldana on the feet in the later rounds, Nunes extends her record for the most KO/TKO wins for any woman in UFC history.

Bet Nunes by KO/TKO (+140)

Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

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