Virginia vs North Carolina Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 9 ACC Tournament (Tar Heels Battle in Greensboro)

Virginia vs North Carolina Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 9 ACC Tournament (Tar Heels Battle in Greensboro)


Virginia vs North Carolina Game Info

  • 2022-23 NCAA Basketball ACC Tournament Game
  • No. 13 Virginia (23-6, 15-5 ACC) vs. North Carolina (20-12, 11-9 ACC)
  • Date: Thursday, March 9, 2023
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Greensboro Coliseum -- Greensboro, North Carolina
  • Coverage: ESPN Networks

The ACC Tournament continues on Thursday with an exciting matchup between the North Carolina Tar Heels and Virginia Cavaliers. Both of these teams have earned an ACC title in the last six seasons. The winner of this quarterfinal matchup will face the victor of the NC State vs Clemson showdown.

North Carolina enters as a victor in four of its last five games following an 85-61 win over Boston College on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Virginia has now won six of its last eight games thanks to a 75-60 victory over Louisville on Saturday. Which ACC squad will keep their conference title hopes alive?

Virginia vs North Carolina Odds & Spread

Virginia enters this contest as a slight favorite on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 7 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 128.5 points, which is below average compared to Thursday's projected totals.

Virginia vs North Carolina Betting Trends

  • Against the spread, Virginia is 11-18-0 this season.
  • The Cavaliers have an ATS record of 9-15 as 1.5-point favorites or greater.
  • Out of 29 Virginia's games so far this year, 15 have hit the over.
  • Against the spread, North Carolina is 11-21-0 this season.
  • The Tar Heels don't have a win ATS (0-6) as a 1.5-point underdog or more this year.
  • North Carolina has seen 14 of its 32 games hit the over.
Virginia Rank Virginia AVG North Carolina AVG North Carolina Rank
271st 68.2 Points Scored 76.7 61st
9th 60.5 Points Allowed 71 203rd
303rd 29.3 Rebounds 36.8 7th
304th 6.9 Off. Rebounds 9.7 75th
222nd 7 3pt Made 7.1 212th
21st 16.1 Assists 12 268th
2nd 8.2 Turnovers 10.5 46th

Virginia vs North Carolina Prediction & Pick

This season has not certainly gone how North Carolina fans thought it would. The Tar Heels opened as the AP's preseason No. 1 team, but posted a pedestrian 11-9 record in conference play. They have a chance to make a true statement to the NCAA Tournament selection committee with a win, though.

North Carolina should be able to control the boards here considering it ranks 21st in total rebounding rate (53.6%), while Virginia ranks all the way down at 174th (50.2%). Ending possessions for their opponent and keeping possessions alive themselves will help the Tar Heels build a lead right away.

Armando Bacot is the best player on the court in this game, so give me the Tar Heels in an upset.

Final Score Prediction: Virginia: 62 | North Carolina: 65

Virginia vs North Carolina Best Bet

Bettors hesitant to back the Tar Heels as a +118 moneyline underdog should feel more comfortable backing them to cover a 2.5-point spread. North Carolina is 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last six games in March and just beat this Virginia team by a score of 71-63 under two weeks ago (Feb. 25).

The Cavaliers enter this game 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall and they are averaging a lowly 61.4 points over their last five games. On the other side, the Tar Heels are averaging 70.6 points over their last five games. Trust North Carolina's offense to stay hot and keep this a close battle in the end.

Bet: North Carolina Tar Heels +2.5 (-110)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.