UConn vs San Diego State Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for NCAA Championship Game (Can the Aztecs Upset the Huskies?)

UConn vs San Diego State Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for NCAA Championship Game (Can the Aztecs Upset the Huskies?)


UConn vs San Diego State Game Info

  • 2022-23 NCAA Tournament Game
  • No. 10 UConn (30-8) vs. No. 18 San Diego State (32-6)
  • Date: Monday, April 3, 2023
  • Time: 9:20 p.m. ET
  • Venue: NRG Stadium -- Houston, Texas
  • Coverage: CBS

The 2023 NCAA Tournament comes to a close on Monday with a National Championship matchup between the No. 4 UConn Huskies and No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs. UConn is in search of its fifth title in men's basketball, while San Diego State is aiming to hoist the trophy for the first time in history.

UConn took care of business in a 72-59 win over Miami on Saturday behind Adama Sanogo's great performance (21 points & 10 rebounds). Meanwhile, San Diego State outlasted Florida Atlantic in a 72-71 thriller as Lamont Butler drained a game-winning shot at the buzzer. Which team will win it all?

UConn vs San Diego State Odds & Spread

UConn enters this contest as a clear favorite on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This championship clash also features an over/under of 131.5 points, with both sides available at -110 odds.

UConn vs San Diego State Betting Trends

  • UConn is 14-1 straight up in its last 15 games as a favorite.
  • The total has hit the under in seven of UConn's last nine games.
  • San Diego State is 6-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last seven games.
  • The total has hit the under in each of San Diego State's last eight games as an underdog.

UConn vs San Diego State Prediction & Pick

UConn has been the most dominant team in this year's tourney as it has won each of its five games by a double-digit margin. The Huskies showcased their versatility on a night where they finally shot poorly from long range by pounding Miami inside with their big forwards (Sanogo and Alex Karaban).

San Diego State is a clear underdog for a reason, yet the Aztecs keep proving that they should not be underestimated. They trailed for a majority of the game against FAU before getting a defensive stop with only seconds left. Head coach Brian Dutcher did not call a timeout and Butler sinked the jumper.

Almost every game that has involved San Diego State this season is a low-scoring showdown. UConn proved it can win those types of battle as it held both Gonzaga and Miami to under 60 points each. The Huskies also enter this one ranked eighth in opponent effective field goal percentage (44.6%).

Look for the Huskies to match the Aztec's defensive intensity and pull away in the second half.

Final Score Prediction: UConn: 72 | San Diego State: 62

UConn vs San Diego State Best Bet

This game features the largest spread of any March Madness title game since the 2009 season, when UNC defeated Michigan 89-72 as a 7.5-point favorite. While I think a 17-point win is unlikely here, I do like UConn's chances of notching one more double-digit win. The Huskies' balance is too impressive.

It's been mentioned above how UConn can San Diego State's strengths on defense. Keep in mind the Huskies outrank the Aztecs in nearly every offensive statistic as well and rank eighth in offensive efficiency. Trust head coach Dan Hurley's team to finish the season on a 6-0 against the spread run.

Bet: UConn Huskies -7.5 (-110)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.