Texas A&M vs Penn State Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 16 NCAA Tournament Game (Aggies Cannot Capitalize)

Texas A&M vs Penn State Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 16 NCAA Tournament Game (Aggies Cannot Capitalize)


Texas A&M vs Penn State Game Info

  • 2022-23 NCAA Tournament Game
  • No. 18 Texas A&M (25-9) vs. Penn State (22-13)
  • Date: Thursday, March 16, 2023
  • Time: 9:55 PM ET
  • Venue: Wells Fargo Arena -- Des Moines, Iowa
  • Coverage: TBS

The 2023 NCAA Tournament continues on Thursday with an exciting Round of 64 matchup between the No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions and No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies. Penn State is back in the big dance for the first time since 2011, while Texas A&M is making its first tournament appearance since 2018.

Penn State is coming off a brutal 67-65 loss to Purdue in the Big Ten Championship, but it was only the second loss in its last 10 games. Meanwhile, Texas A&M's four-game winning streak came to an end with an 82-63 loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship. Which team will advance with a victory?

Texas A&M vs Penn State Odds & Spread

Texas A&M enters this contest as a small favorite on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 9:55 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 134.5 points, which is about average compared to Thursday's projected totals.

Texas A&M vs Penn State Betting Trends

  • Texas A&M is 23-11-0 against the spread this season.
  • The Aggies' ATS record as 3.5-point favorites or more is 16-7.
  • Texas A&M has played 34 games this season, and 16 of them have gone over the total.
  • Penn State's record against the spread is 20-14-0.
  • As 3.5-point underdogs or more, the Nittany Lions are 8-4 against the spread.
  • Penn State has seen 19 of its 34 games go over the point total.
Texas A&M Rank Texas A&M AVG Penn State AVG Penn State Rank
138th 73.2 Points Scored 72.3 165th
65th 66.2 Points Allowed 68.4 124th
53rd 34 Rebounds 30.1 271st
23rd 10.8 Off. Rebounds 5.2 359th
310th 6.1 3pt Made 10.4 5th
212th 12.6 Assists 13.9 113th
185th 11.9 Turnovers 8.5 4th

Texas A&M vs Penn State Prediction & Pick

These teams are polar opposites on the offensive end of the floor. Penn State relies almost solely on its ability to hit jump shots considering it attempts 27.0 three-pointers per contest (No. 12 in NCAA) and rarely turns the ball over. It ranks 362nd in free throws attempted per game (12.2) as a result.

Texas A&M is a subpar shooting team and relies on its physicality to force opponents to commit 20.2 fouls per game (No. 13 in NCAA). The Aggies tally 19.2 free throws made per game (No. 1 in NCAA). This one comes down to whether Penn State of Texas A&M is the one to capitalize on its strengths.

Texas A&M has lost four of its last five games against a Big Ten foe, so give me Penn State in an upset.

Final Score Prediction: Texas A&M: 65 | Penn State: 69

Texas A&M vs Penn State Best Bet

Penn State has a much better opportunity to capitalize on its strength here considering Texas A&M allows a whopping 8.1 made three-pointers per game (No. 285 in NCAA). The Nittany Lions rank among the top 75 teams in both fouls (15.7) and opponents free throw attempts per game (15.2).

Head coach Micah Shrewsberry's team enters the NCAA Tournament 8-0 against the spread (ATS) in its last eight games as an underdog as well as 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games in March. Texas A&M is only 1-7 ATS in its last eight games on a Thursday and finds itself in a disadvantageous matchup.

Bet: Penn State Nittany Lions +2.5 (-102)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.