TCU vs Kansas State Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 9 Big 12 Tournament (Wildcats Sneak Past Horned Frogs)

TCU vs Kansas State Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 9 Big 12 Tournament (Wildcats Sneak Past Horned Frogs)


TCU vs Kansas State Game Info

  • 2022-23 NCAA Basketball Big 12 Tournament Game
  • No. 22 TCU (20-11, 9-9 Big 12) vs. No. 12 Kansas State (23-8, 11-7 Big 12)
  • Date: Thursday, March 9, 2023
  • Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
  • Venue: T-Mobile Center -- Kansas City, Missouri
  • Coverage: ESPN Networks

The Big 12 Conference Tournament keeps rolling along on Thursday as TCU and Kansas State meet up for what should be an exciting game. The Horned Frogs come in as the No. 6 seed while the Wildcats are the No. 3 seed, setting up a quarterfinals contest that could go either way.

Will K-State stay hot after winning four of its last five games? Or will TCU prevail and advance to the semifinals?

TCU vs Kansas State Odds & Spread

Despite being the lower seed, TCU is actually slightly favored on both the spread and moneyline at FanDuel Sportsbook. This game is expected to be close and high-scoring with an above-average total of 147.5

TCU vs Kansas State Betting Trends

  • TCU has covered the spread 15 times in 31 games.
  • As 2.5-point favorites or more, the Horned Frogs are 8-10 against the spread.
  • This season, 16 of TCU's 31 games have hit the over.
  • Against the spread, Kansas State is 20-11-0 this season.
  • The Wildcats' ATS record as 2.5-point underdogs or more is 4-4.
  • There have been 16 Kansas State games (out of 31) that hit the over this year.
TCU Rank TCU AVG Kansas State AVG Kansas State Rank
88th 75.5 Points Scored 75.8 82nd
118th 68 Points Allowed 68.7 138th
97th 33.2 Rebounds 32.3 145th
46th 10.2 Off. Rebounds 8.8 157th
345th 5.2 3pt Made 7.1 211th
17th 16.3 Assists 16.9 10th
157th 11.7 Turnovers 13.5 317th

TCU vs Kansas State Prediction & Pick

On paper, there's not much separating these two teams. They're pretty much identical in both offensive and defensive production, making it touch to pick a winner here.

Kansas State did close out the season with some big wins over ranked opponents, including a dominant 82-61 win over TCU the last time they met on Feb. 7. The Horned Frogs controlled their first matchup, however, with an 82-68 win in January, so their head-to-head matchups don't necessarily tell us much, either.

K-State did have a slightly better record overall and fared better against conference opponents, which could be a point in its favor here. The Wildcats also have a slim edge on both offense and defense, according to KenPom's adjusted ratings.

With this game looking like a coin flip, that will have to do. This one could go down to the wire, but K-State will be the one that moves on.

Final Score Prediction: Kansas State: 77 | TCU: 74

TCU vs Kansas State Best Bet

Since this game could go either way and there's actually a case that Kansas State should be favored here, we recommend taking the Wildcats outright. Getting them at plus odds on the moneyline is pretty good value for a 3-seed, especially considering how they crushed the Horned Frogs in their last meeting.

Kansas State is also playing better basketball at the moment, as TCU has lost six of its last nine games. Look for those struggles to carry over into the tournament for the Horned Frogs and result in an early exit.

Bet: Kansas State Wildcats ML (+106)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.