Super Bowl Opening Kickoff Return Touchdown Prop Bet History and Stats
Super Bowl LVII is only days away, and that means we've got one of the biggest betting events of the year coming up. In addition to the standard wagering options we've come to expect from an NFL game, there will also be an expanded menu of exciting prop bets to choose from on FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL odds.
One of these prop bets is "Opening kickoff returned for a touchdown?", with the odds of a "Yes" bet currently listed at +10000 for the big game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.
Let's take a deeper look at that prop bet.
Super Bowl Opening Kickoff Return for a Touchdown
There has only been one player in Super Bowl history to return the opening kickoff for a touchdown, and that was Chicago Bears rookie Devin Hester in Super Bowl XLI against the Indianapolis Colts.
With 56 Super Bowls having been played so far, that means it's happened in 1.8% of the Super Bowls. At +10000 odds, it only needs to happen 1.0% of the time to break even.
But the NFL has changed a lot during the Super Bowl era, even in the 16 years since Hester's jaw-dropping play in 2007. Kickers have gotten stronger and more powerful over the years, resulting in more touchbacks and fewer kick returns.
Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker recorded touchbacks on 44 of his 68 kickoffs during the regular season — a rate of 64.7%. Jake Elliott posted an even higher percentage for the Eagles with 63 of his 91 kickoffs landing for touchbacks (69.2%).
That means at best there's only about a 1-in-3 chance that the opening kickoff even gets returned.
It's also incredibly hard to score off a kick, regardless of whether it's a punt or a kickoff. Neither Kansas City nor Philadelphia returned any type of kick for a touchdown during the regular season this year, although both sides did have fairly long kickoff returns of 48 and 66 yards, respectively.
Still, that means both teams were a combined 0-for-66 on kickoff returns during the regular reason, so the numbers don't appear to be in our favor. A kickoff return even happening at all is unlikely, and the odds of one being returned for a touchdown are even more minuscule.
There are going to be a ton of fun prop bets to target for Super Bowl 57, but this is one you may be better off avoiding. The odds are 10,000/1 for a reason.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.