Purdue vs Illinois Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 5 (Defenses Shine in Big Ten Showdown)

Purdue vs Illinois Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 5 (Defenses Shine in Big Ten Showdown)


Purdue vs Illinois Game Info

  • 2022-23 NCAA Basketball Regular Season Game
  • No. 5 Purdue (25-5, 14-5 Big Ten) vs. Illinois (20-10, 11-8 Big Ten)
  • Date: Sunday, March 5, 2023
  • Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Mackey Arena -- West Lafayette, Indiana
  • Coverage: FOX

The 2022-23 college basketball season continues on Sunday with an exciting matchup between the Illinois Fighting Illini and No. 5 Purdue Boilermakers. Illinois is coming off a 91-87 double-overtime win against Michigan on Thursday. Matthew Mayer logged 24 points (8-of-20 shooting) and 7 rebounds.

Meanwhile, Purdue bounced back from a tough conference loss with a 63-61 win over Wisconsin on Thursday. Zach Edey showed why he is a Wooden Award finalist in that one as he tallied 17 points, 19 rebounds and 3 assists. Which Big Ten team will earn a momentous win to end the regular season?

Purdue vs Illinois Odds & Spread

Purdue enters this contest as a clear home favorite on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 12:30 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 139.5 points, which is about average compared to Sunday's projected totals.

Purdue vs Illinois Betting Trends

  • Against the spread, Purdue is 13-17-0 this season.
  • The Boilermakers are 7-11 as 7.5-point favorites or more.
  • There have been 12 Purdue's games (out of 30) that hit the over this season.
  • Illinois has 17 wins in 30 games against the spread this year.
  • Out of Illinois' 30 games so far this year, 13 have hit the over.
Purdue Rank Purdue AVG Illinois AVG Illinois Rank
145th 73.1 Points Scored 74.7 112th
17th 62.2 Points Allowed 66.3 70th
8th 36.7 Rebounds 35.9 16th
17th 11.0 Off. Rebounds 10.2 45th
234th 6.9 3pt Made 7.7 141st
40th 15.3 Assists 12.4 234th
50th 10.6 Turnovers 12.5 238th

Purdue vs Illinois Prediction & Pick

Each of these squads is considered to be well within the NCAA Tournament field. However, there is still a lot to play for here as a win would boost seeding and a loss would hinder seeding. Purdue owns a 13-2 home record this season and has posted a +15.7 average scoring margin at Mackey Arena.

The Boilermakers are balanced in the fact that they allow only 62.2 points per game (No. 16 in NCAA) and shoot 54.3% from two-point range (No. 35 in NCAA). All signs point to head coach Matt Painter's team earning another win, especially since Illinois has lost six of its nine away games this season.

Purdue has won 14 of its last 20 games against Illinois, so back the home team on Sunday afternoon.

Final Score Prediction: Purdue: 72 | Illinois: 62

Purdue vs Illinois Best Bet

This is the first time these teams have met head-to-head this season, so expect Purdue and Illinois to take some time to feel each other out early on. Keep in mind that the Boilermakers also average only 66.0 possessions per game (No. 338 in NCAA), which goes to show they aren't afraid to slow things down.

Expect a low-scoring contest to break out as Purdue and Illinois both rank among the top 45 teams in defensive efficiency. After all, the total has hit the under in eight of the Fighting Illini's last 12 games and in four of the Boilermaker's last five games. This will be a classic Big Ten defensive showdown.

Bet: Under 139.5 Total Points (-110)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.