Penn State vs Northwestern Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 10 Big Ten Tournament (Wildcats Win Tight Matchup)

Penn State vs Northwestern Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 10 Big Ten Tournament (Wildcats Win Tight Matchup)


Penn State vs Northwestern Game Info

  • 2022-23 NCAA Basketball Big Ten Tournament Game
  • Penn State (20-12, 10-10 Big Ten) vs. Northwestern (21-10, 12-8 Big Ten)
  • Date: Friday, March 10, 2023
  • Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
  • Venue: United Center -- Chicago, Illinois
  • Coverage: BTN

The Big Ten Conference Tournament continues on Friday with a quarterfinals matchup between No. 2 Northwestern and No. 10 Penn State. Penn State outlasted Illinois in a 79-76 thriller on Thursday to advance, while this will be Northwestern's first game of the tournament after earning a bye.

Can the Nittany Lions recover in time to knock off the Wildcats? Or will Northwestern come out on top and advance to the semifinals?

Penn State vs Northwestern Odds & Spread

FanDuel Sportsbook has this game as a virtual toss-up with Penn State favored ever so slightly on the spread. This tight matchup is also expected to be low-scoring with an over/under of 130.5 total points.

Penn State vs Northwestern Betting Trends

  • Penn State has beaten the spread 17 times in 31 games.
  • The Nittany Lions have an ATS record of 9-9 as 0.5-point favorites or greater.
  • There have been 17 Penn State's games (out of 31) that went over the total this year.
  • Northwestern's record against the spread is 19-12-0.
  • The Wildcats have an ATS record of 11-5 as 0.5-point underdogs or greater.
  • There have been 11 Northwestern games (out of 31) that hit the over this year.
Penn State Rank Penn State AVG Northwestern AVG Northwestern Rank
158th 72.6 Points Scored 67.7 283rd
126th 68.4 Points Allowed 62.3 17th
292nd 29.7 Rebounds 32.0 165th
362nd 5.1 Off. Rebounds 8.8 157th
4th 10.7 3pt Made 7.7 140th
91st 14.3 Assists 13.0 183rd
3rd 8.3 Turnovers 9.3 9th

Penn State vs Northwestern Prediction & Pick

What happens when an elite offense goes up against a terrific defense? We're about to find out.

Northwestern is one of the best defensive teams in the country, ranking 19th in KenPom's adjusted defensive rating. The Wildcats are solid offensively as well, ranking 103rd in his adjusted offensive rating.

Penn State represents the flip side of the coin, ranking 15th in adjusted offensive rating and 125th in adjusted defensive rating. KenPom has Northwestern (42) rated slightly ahead of Penn State (49) overall, but the difference is negligible.

No wonder the odds for this game are essentially even. Their lone matchup this year was incredibly close as well with Penn State emerging with a 68-65 win in overtime just last week.

Still, we expect the Nittany Lions to be a bit tired after going wire-to-wire against Illinois yesterday. That should give the well-rested Wildcats -- who haven't played since Sunday -- enough of an edge to come out on top here.

Final Score Prediction: Northwestern: 67 | Penn State: 65

Penn State vs Northwestern Best Bet

With the spread being half a point, your best bet is to pick the outright winner on the moneyline. This game could go either way, but we like Northwestern for the reasons mentioned above. Expect the Wildcats' D to be in top form after having all week to rest up, while the Nittany Lions could be a bit sluggish on offense after yesterday's battle.

Bet: Northwestern ML (-110)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.