North Carolina vs Duke Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 4 (Tar Heels Start Strong in Must-Win ACC Collision)

North Carolina vs Duke Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 4 (Tar Heels Start Strong in Must-Win ACC Collision)


North Carolina vs Duke Game Info

  • 2022-23 NCAA Basketball Regular Season Game
  • North Carolina (19-11, 11-8 ACC) vs. Duke (22-8, 13-6 ACC)
  • Date: Saturday, March 4, 2023
  • Time: 6:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Dean Smith Center -- Chapel Hill, North Carolina
  • Coverage: ESPN

One of college basketball's biggest rivalries takes center stage on Saturday, March 4 as the North Carolina Tar Heels play host to the ACC rival Duke Blue Devils at 6:30 p.m. ET.

Both teams have done a lot of winning lately. North Carolina enters tonight's contest on a three-game winning streak following a 77-66 victory over Florida State. Meanwhile, Duke extended its winning ways to five straight games with Tuesday's 71-67 win against NC State.

So, which of these ACC rivals will continue flirting with success this evening?

North Carolina vs Duke Odds & Spread

North Carolina enters this contest as the home favorite on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 6:30 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 142.5 points with both sides sitting at -110 odds.

North Carolina vs Duke Betting Trends

  • Against the spread, North Carolina is 10-20-0 this year.
  • As 2.5-point favorites or more, the Tar Heels are 10-13 against the spread.
  • Out of 30 North Carolina's games so far this season, 13 have gone over the total.
  • Duke is 11-19-0 against the spread this season.
  • The Blue Devils have no wins ATS (0-3) as a 2.5-point underdog or more this year.
  • Out of Duke's 30 games so far this season, 12 have hit the over.
North Carolina Rank North Carolina AVG Duke AVG Duke Rank
55th 77.1 Points Scored 72.1 172nd
227th 71.6 Points Allowed 64.0 32nd
6th 36.9 Rebounds 36.2 11th
78th 9.7 Off. Rebounds 11.4 11th
223rd 7.0 3pt Made 6.9 237th
267th 12.0 Assists 14.7 75th
59th 10.7 Turnovers 11.8 169th

North Carolina vs Duke Prediction & Pick

On paper, Duke's winning streak looks impressive... until you realize it hasn't really beaten any noteworthy opponents outside of NC State. Now, the Blues Devils are tasked with defeating a North Carolina squad that overcame ranked Virginia in its last home outing.

North Carolina has been tough to defeat at Dean Smith Center, winning 12 of its 14 home games thus far. The Tar Heels also average a respectable 79.8 PPG at home compared to the Blue Devils' 66.9 PPG clip on the road. That's not even mentioning how UNC boasts a plus-11.7 scoring margin in its backyard, whereas Duke is a minus-0.8 on the road.

At the end of the day, North Carolina can't afford to lose. The Tar Heels must win to better their odds of an NCAA Tournament appearance. That motivation — plus the home crowd's support — should be enough to push them to victory.

Final Score Prediction: North Carolina: 76 | Duke: 70

North Carolina vs Duke Best Bet

Again, North Carolina is extremely motivated to win this game and a strong start would help with that goal. The good news is that UNC typically starts well at Dean Smith Center, averaging 37.6 first-half points with a plus-6.9 scoring margin. At the same time, Duke averages 33.4 points with a minus-0.9 scoring margin at halftime on the road.

A 1.5-point halftime spread isn't all that difficult for North Carolina to cover. Duke will present a challenge, but UNC's strong play at home will see it lead by at least a basket after the first half.

Bet: First-Half Spread — North Carolina -1.5 (-110)

Devon Platana is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Devon Platana also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username PepeSilvia0. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.