Michigan State vs USC Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 17 NCAA Tournament Game (Spartans Dominate the Paint)

Michigan State vs USC Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 17 NCAA Tournament Game (Spartans Dominate the Paint)


Michigan State vs USC Game Info

  • 2022-23 NCAA Tournament Game
  • Michigan State (19-12) vs. USC (22-10)
  • Date: Friday, March 17, 2023
  • Time: 12:15 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Nationwide Arena -- Columbus, Ohio
  • Coverage: CBS

Friday, March 17's 2022-23 NCAA Tournament slate includes a first-round East Region showdown between the No. 7 Michigan State Spartans and No. 10 USC Trojans.

USC was booted from the Pac-12 Tournament's quarterfinals in its last outing due to a 77-72 loss to Arizona State. Meanwhile, Michigan State tasted defeat in its Big Ten quarterfinal meeting with Ohio State, losing 68-58.

Which team will avoid elimination and advance to the next round? Let's take a look.

Michigan State vs USC Odds & Spread

Michigan State enters this contest as a slim favorite on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 12:15 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 137.5 points with the over being favored at -115 odds.

Michigan State vs USC Betting Trends

  • Michigan State's record against the spread is 15-16-0.
  • The Spartans' ATS record as 1.5-point favorites or more is 10-8.
  • Michigan State has played 31 games this season, and 16 of them have gone over the total.
  • USC is 17-15-0 against the spread this season.
  • Against the spread as 1.5-point underdogs or more, the Trojans are 6-5.
  • This year, 17 of USC's 32 games have hit the over.
Michigan State Rank Michigan State AVG USC AVG USC Rank
209th 70.2 Points Scored 72.8 153rd
98th 67.4 Points Allowed 67.3 96th
165th 32 Rebounds 32.2 151st
293rd 7.1 Off. Rebounds 7.9 233rd
169th 7.5 3pt Made 6.5 277th
59th 14.8 Assists 13.4 150th
37th 10.3 Turnovers 11.8 175th

Michigan State vs USC Prediction & Pick

A lot is working against USC ahead of this matchup. For starters, USC has lost nine straight outings against the Big Ten. On top of that, it's also failed the cover the spread in each of its last six games played in March. That's not even to mention that the Trojans lost their only previous meeting with the Spartans at the NCAA Tournament.

On the other side, Michigan State is a solid 12-1 straight up in its last 13 games as the favorite. I expect that trend to continue — especially with USC shooting just 41.2% from the field over its last three games. The Spartans will capitalize on those mistakes as they average 24.9 defensive rebounds (T-No. 37) while the Trojans put up just 7.9 offensive boards per game (No. 211).

With Michigan State having the 31st-best assist/turnover ratio in the country, the mistakes won't be there for USC to bounce back. Expect the Spartans to get things done.

Final Score Prediction: Michigan State: 73 | USC: 70

Michigan State vs USC Best Bet

As mentioned before, Michigan State has a 92.3% winning rate in its last 13 games as the favorite. The Spartans will use their superior rebounding and accuracy to give the Trojans a headache before relying on their defense to close things out. USC will keep things close, but the little things that MSU does right will pay off.

Bet: Michigan State ML (-134)

Devon Platana is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Devon Platana also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username PepeSilvia0. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.