Lerone Murphy vs Gabriel Santos Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for UFC 286 (Can Santos Play Spoiler in UFC Debut?)

Lerone Murphy vs Gabriel Santos Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for UFC 286 (Can Santos Play Spoiler in UFC Debut?)


Murphy vs Santos Fight Info, Date & Time

UFC 286 — Preliminary Card Featherweight Bout
Lerone "The Miracle" Murphy (11-0-1, 7 KOs) vs. Gabriel "Mosquitinho" Santos (10-0-0, 3 KOs)
Date: Saturday, March 18, 2023
Fight Time: This will be one of the fights on the preliminary card, which begins at 3 p.m. ET.
Venue: O2 Arena — London, England, United Kingdom
Coverage: ESPN, PPV

Murphy vs Santos Odds & Prop Bets

All UFC 286 odds, lines and prop bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Lerone Murphy: (-172)
- Gabriel Santos: (+144)

Method of Victory:
- Murphy by KO/TKO: (+340)
- Murphy by Points: (+145)
- Murphy by Submission: (+1600)
- Santos by KO/TKO: (+700)
- Santos by Points: (+380)
- Santos by Submission: (+600)

Murphy vs Santos Prediction

This featherweight bout features no shortage of intriguing storylines. Lerone Murphy gets to fight in his home country of England, while Gabriel Santos gets a chance to play spoiler in what is his UFC debut. Of course, both fighters would benefit from a win as they attempt to rise up the ranks, too.

Murphy originally began his career as a boxer, meaning he still prefers to stay upright in fights and relies on a relentless body attack to set up KO opportunities. He has posted a 3-0-1 record at the UFC level, knocking out Ricardo Ramos (July 2020) and Makwan Amirkhani (October 2021).

Santos was labeled as a grappler early in his fighting career but recently earned a promotion to the UFC with back-to-back KO victories in the Legacy Fighting Alliance. It only took the 26-year-old two fights to win the LFA title at 145 pounds, which goes to show that he should not be underestimated.

I'll side with Gabriel Santos to pull off a small upset win.

Murphy vs Santos Best Bet

While backing Santos as a +142 moneyline underdog has value, betting on the fight to not go the distance is the best way to go here. After all, seven of Santos' 10 professional fights have been decided by submission or KO/TKO. The same thing can be said about seven of Murphy's 11 fights.

Both of these fighters come to the octagon with a well-rounded background. Murphy is an upright fighter by nature but is also a blue belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Santos is a wrestler by nature but has recently found power in his strikes. Someone will end this fight early, but it's tough to tell who it will be.

Bet: Fight to Not Go the Distance (+108)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

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