Knicks vs. Heat Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for NBA Playoffs Game 4 (Improved Shooting Helps New York Even Series)

Knicks vs. Heat Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for NBA Playoffs Game 4 (Improved Shooting Helps New York Even Series)


The 2022-23 NBA Playoffs continue on Monday with Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals between the New York Knicks and Miami Heat.

Knicks vs. Heat Game Info

  • Date: Monday, May 8, 2023
  • Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Venue: FTX Arena -- Miami, Florida
  • Coverage: TNT

After taking one of the first two games on the road in New York, Miami defended home court in Game 3 as the Heat won by a final score of 105-86. Defense was the key to success for head coach Erik Spoelstra's squad as it held New York to a 34.1% shooting mark, including 20.0% from three-point range.

Knicks vs. Heat Odds & Spread

  • All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
  • Moneyline: NYK: (+154) | MIA: (-184)
  • Spread: NYK: +4.5 (-110) | MIA: -4.5 (-110)
  • Total: 205.5 -- Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

The Heat enter Game 4 as home favorites on the spread and moneyline at FanDuel Sportsbook. Monday's playoff matchup also features a total of 205.5 points with each side available at -110 odds.

Heat vs Knicks Betting Information
Favorite Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline
Heat -4.5 -110 -110 205 -110 -110 -180 +152

Knicks vs. Heat Betting Trends

  • The Heat have gone 30-48-1 against the spread this season.
  • The Knicks have an against the spread record of 5-4-2 in their 11 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or more this year.
  • Heat games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under 39 times out of 78 chances this season.
  • Knicks games this year have eclipsed the over/under 42 times in 78 opportunities (53.8%).
  • Against the spread, Miami has performed worse when playing at home, covering 15 times in 40 home games, and 15 times in 39 road games.
  • Against the spread, New York has had better results on the road (25-13-1) than at home (18-20-1).

Knicks vs. Heat Prediction & Pick

The return of Jimmy Butler worked wonders for the Heat as the All-Star guard led all scorers with 28 points in Game 3 on 9-of-21 shooting. He got to the free throw line 11 times and also tallied 2 blocks on the defensive end. The Knicks have had no answer for his tenacity, so an adjustment is needed.

Falling into a 1-3 hole here is exactly what the Knicks cannot do, so I like them to lean on what has gotten them to this point. New York was the only team to finish the regular season with a winning record as a road underdog (17-15), which goes to show it is not afraid to play in hostile environments.

After being held to an ugly 20.6% shooting mark from beyond the arc in Game 1 (7-of-34), the Knicks shot 40.0% from deep in Game 2 (16-of-40). Look for a similar boost to come after a disappointing Game 3 effort, especially since Miami ranks 21st in opponent three-point percentage at home (36.6%).

Final Score Prediction: Knicks: 105 | Heat: 100

Knicks vs. Heat Best Bet

Julius Randle had one of the worst shooting performances of the Knicks' postseason run in Game 3, scoring just 10 points and going 4-for-15 from the field. He still found a way to make an impact with 14 rebounds, though. He crushed it around the rim and has now tallied three double-doubles across seven playoff games for New York.

The 28-year-old is also coming off back-to-back games with 38 minutes played, so the ankle injury he suffered toward the end of the regular season seems to not be an issue. Randle averages 17.5 points and 8.6 rebounds against the Heat in his career, meaning a double-double is far from unrealistic here.

Bet: Julius Randle To Record Double-Double (+155)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.