Houston vs Memphis Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 12 AAC Championship (Cougars Earn Third Straight Title)

Houston vs Memphis Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 12 AAC Championship (Cougars Earn Third Straight Title)


Houston vs Memphis Game Info

  • 2022-23 NCAA Basketball AAC Tournament Championship
  • No. 1 Houston (31-2, 17-1 AAC) vs. Memphis (25-8, 13-5 AAC)
  • Date: Sunday, March 12, 2023
  • Time: 3:15 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Dickies Arena -- Fort Worth, Texas
  • Coverage: ESPN

An automatic spot in the NCAA Tournament is up for grabs when the Memphis Tigers and Houston Cougars face off in the AAC Championship on Sunday. The Tigers will be aiming to win their first conference title in school history while the Cougars will be looking to win their third straight AAC title.

Memphis took down Tulane by a score of 94-54 in the semifinals to earn its fifth win in its last six games. Meanwhile, Houston picked apart Cincinnati in a 69-48 semifinals win to capture its 13th straight victory.

Which AAC squad will emerge victorious in Dickies Arena on Sunday afternoon? Let's examine this matchup in greater detail.

Houston vs Memphis Odds & Spread

Houston enters this contest as a notable favorite on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 3:15 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 136.5 points, which is about average compared to Sunday's projected totals.

Houston vs Memphis Betting Trends

  • Houston's record against the spread is 18-15-0.
  • The Cougars' ATS record as 5.5-point favorites or more is 17-14.
  • Out of 33 Houston's games so far this season, 15 have hit the over.
  • Memphis' record against the spread is 19-14-0.
  • The Tigers have covered every time (2-0) as a 5.5-point underdog or greater this season.
  • Out of Memphis' 33 games so far this season, 18 have hit the over.
Houston Rank Houston AVG Memphis AVG Memphis Rank
91st 75.3 Points Scored 79.9 19th
2nd 55.9 Points Allowed 72.2 247th
13th 35.9 Rebounds 32.2 151st
11th 11.4 Off. Rebounds 8.6 180th
126th 7.8 3pt Made 6.2 300th
55th 14.9 Assists 15.9 22nd
10th 9.4 Turnovers 13.3 309th

Houston vs Memphis Prediction & Pick

Talk about entering the championship game with momentum. Both Houston and Memphis drained at least 29 buckets and held the opponent to a shooting percentage under 26.0% on Saturday. The Cougars and Tigers are both peaking at the perfect time, but only one team can win on Sunday.

I like that team to be Houston simply due to the Cougars' ability to contest every shot the opponent puts up. Head coach Kelvin Sampson's team ranks first in defensive efficiency as well as points allowed per game (55.9). That defense will come through in a game that may go down to the wire.

Houston has won six of its last eight games against Memphis, so back the Cougars in this one.

Final Score Prediction: Houston: 70 | Memphis: 66

Houston vs Memphis Best Bet

There's value in backing the Cougars to come out on top by a small margin in this game. Houston and Memphis have met 15 times since the start of 2016 and 12 of those contests have been decided by fewer than 11 points. That includes the Cougars' two wins over the Tigers this year (72-64 & 67-65).

It's worth taking into consideration how evenly matched these teams are. Both Memphis and Houston rank among the top 70 teams when it comes to points per game, shooting percentage and opponent turnovers per game. This one has nail-biter written all over it, which makes the +172 odds for the winning margin stick out.

Bet: Houston Cougars by 1-10 Points (+172)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.