Heat vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for NBA Finals Game 1 (Denver Extends Miami's Ball Arena Struggles)

Heat vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for NBA Finals Game 1 (Denver Extends Miami's Ball Arena Struggles)


The 2022-23 NBA Finals are here, pitting the Nikola Jokic-led Denver Nuggets against the underdog Miami Heat. This seven-game series is one that basketball enthusiasts won't want to miss as Game 1 is set to take place at Ball Arena on Thursday, June 1.

Heat vs Nuggets Game 1 Info

  • Series: Tied 0-0
  • Date: Thursday, June 1, 2023
  • Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Ball Arena -- Denver, Colorado
  • Coverage: ABC

The two finalist teams clashed twice during the regular season, resulting in a pair of wins for the Nuggets. Having said that, it isn't like the Heat were obliterated in either matchup as both of their losses came by five or fewer points. Only time will tell if the NBA Finals will be as close.

Heat vs Nuggets Odds & Spread

  • All NBA betting lines, odds, and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
  • Moneyline: MIA: (+310) | DEN: (-390)
  • Spread: MIA: +9 (-114) | DEN: -9 (-106)
  • Total: 219.5 -- Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

The Nuggets enter this contest as clear home favorites on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 8:30 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 219.5 points with both sides available at -110 odds.

Heat vs Nuggets Betting Trends

  • Miami is 1-6 straight up (SU) in its last seven road games against Denver.
  • Denver is 10-0 SU in its last 10 home games.
  • Miami is 12-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last 16 games.
  • Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last five games played in June.
  • The total has hit the Over in 10 of Miami's last 13 road games.
  • The total has hit the Over in each of Denver's last five games against Miami.

Heat vs Nuggets Prediction & Pick

Although the Heat have proven that they can upset even the NBA's best teams, winning in Denver could be a whole different story. The Heat have lost six consecutive trips to Ball Arena, averaging just 98.5 PPG. Miami hasn't won in Denver since November 2016 and although it does have a road win over the Nuggets since then, that victory came during the NBA Bubble.

Check out more NBA Playoffs content from The Duel:

Making matters worse for the Heat is the fact that the Nuggets have won 10 consecutive home games, winning by an average margin of 11.2 points. Denver is now an absurd 42-7 SU at Ball Arena this season, whereas the Heat are just 23-28 SU on the road.

In what should be a close game, I see the Nuggets prevailing. They're just too good at home and get production from the top to the bottom of their lineup. Until the Heat prove that they can win in the Mile High City, it's hard to doubt Michael Malone's team at home.

Final Score Prediction: Nuggets: 118 | Heat: 113

Heat vs Nuggets Best Bet

Although I'm confident in a Nuggets win, I'm actually going with the Heat as +9 underdogs as the best bet. After all, the Heat are an impressive 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games, whereas the Nuggets are 4-4 ATS in their previous eight. Denver also only beat Miami by an average of 4.5 points during the regular season, meaning a 9-point spread is somewhat disrespectful to the road team.

The Nuggets will still get the job done, but it won't be in the form of a blowout.

Bet: Miami Heat +9 (-114)

Watch FanDuel TV’s new NBA show “Run It Back” with Shams Charania, Michelle Beadle, Chandler Parsons, and Eddie Gonzalez Monday-Wednesday at 10 ET on FanDuel TV, the FanDuel Youtube page, or download the podcast here: fanduel.com/podcasts.

Devon Platana is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Devon Platana also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username PepeSilvia0. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.