Heat vs Celtics Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for NBA Playoffs Game 1 (Boston Leans on Dominant Defense in Victory)

Heat vs Celtics Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for NBA Playoffs Game 1 (Boston Leans on Dominant Defense in Victory)


The 2022-23 NBA Playoffs continue on Wednesday, May 17 with Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics.

Heat vs Celtics Game 1 Info

  • Date: Wednesday, May 17, 2023
  • Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Venue: TD Garden -- Boston, MA
  • Coverage: TNT

The Heat and Celtic are set to meet in the Eastern Conference Finals for the third time in the last four years. Miami is the first No. 8 seed in over two decades to reach this point after taking down the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Boston is now one step closer to a second straight Finals appearance following a thrilling series win over the Philadelphia 76ers.

Heat vs Celtics Odds & Spread

  • All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
  • Moneyline: MIA: (+260) | BOS: (-320)
  • Spread: MIA: +7.5 (-110) | BOS: -7.5 (-110)
  • Total: 210 -- Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

The Celtics enter this contest as clear home favorites on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This Game 1 clash also features an over/under of 210 points with both sides available at -110 odds.

Celtics vs Heat Betting Information
Favorite Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline
Celtics -8 -112 -108 210 -110 -110 -360 +290

Heat vs Celtics Betting Trends

  • The Celtics are 39-35-4 against the spread this season.
  • This year, the Heat have just one against the spread win in three games as an underdog of 8 points or more.
  • This season, Celtics games have hit the over 40 times out of 79 chances.
  • Heat games this season have gone over the point total 39 times in 79 opportunities (49.4%).
  • Boston has done a better job covering the spread in home games (21-17-1) than it has in road affairs (18-18-3).
  • Miami has been better against the spread away (15-24-0) than at home (15-24-1) this year.

Heat vs Celtics Prediction & Pick

As mentioned above, these are two teams that have become accustomed to playing one another with a finals berth on the line. Miami took down Boston in six games during the 2020 ECF, while the Celtics downed the Heat in seven games during the 2022 ECF. Both series were intense battles.

These teams are driven by their stars, as Jimmy Butler is averaging 31.1 points per game in these playoffs and Jayson Tatum just set the NBA record for most points in a Game 7 (51). This game will come down to defense, though, which gives the Celtics a major advantage on their home court.

Boston finished the regular season ranked third in defensive efficiency and has backed up the hype by allowing a 44.3% opponent shooting percentage in the postseason (No. 2 among teams left). The Celtics are also averaging 5.5 blocks per game, showcasing how they can defend the paint with relative ease.

Boston has the momentum coming off a glorious Game 7 win, so give me the home team to win.

Final Score Prediction: Heat: 104 | Celtics: 109

Heat vs Celtics Best Bet

Tatum certainly deserves to be in the spotlight right now after his dominating performance. However, Jaylen Brown has quietly stayed productive throughout the entire postseason, averaging a reliable 24.6 points per game on a 54.1% shooting mark. His driving and mid-range abilities have been stellar.

Brown has tallied at least 25 points in six of Boston's 13 playoff games, but it's also worth noting that he has scored fewer than 23 points only three times. The 26-year-old cashed this prop bet in all three of his regular-season games against Miami this year, so bank on him to do it again here.

Bet: Jaylen Brown Over 24.5 Points (-108)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.