Duke vs Virginia Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 11 ACC Championship (Duke Cuts Down the Nets)

Duke vs Virginia Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 11 ACC Championship (Duke Cuts Down the Nets)


Duke vs Virginia Game Info

  • 2022-23 NCAA Basketball ACC Tournament Championship
  • No. 21 Duke (25-8, 14-6 ACC) vs. No. 13 Virginia (25-6, 15-5 ACC)
  • Date: Saturday, March 11, 2023
  • Time: 8:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Greensboro Coliseum -- Greensboro, North Carolina
  • Coverage: ESPN

Duke has been rolling though its opponents in the ACC Tournament thus far. Now, it gets a shot to prove its conference dominance over Virginia in the ACC tournament final on Saturday night. That being said, Virginia is surely no slouch. They're ranked ahead of Duke in both the ACC and the nation.

Duke vs Virginia Odds & Spread

Duke vs Virginia Betting Trends

  • Duke has 14 wins in 33 games against the spread this year.
  • Against the spread as 2.5-point favorites or more, the Blue Devils are 11-13.
  • There have been 14 Duke's games (out of 33) that hit the over this year.
  • Against the spread, Virginia is 13-18-0 this season.
  • The Cavaliers have won twice ATS (2-2) as a 2.5-point underdog or greater this season.
  • There have been 16 Virginia games (out of 31) that went over the total this year.
Duke Rank Duke AVG Virginia AVG Virginia Rank
152nd 72.9 Points Scored 68.4 268th
35th 64.4 Points Allowed 60.3 6th
12th 35.9 Rebounds 29.5 301st
15th 11.1 Off. Rebounds 6.9 305th
230th 6.9 3pt Made 6.9 230th
60th 14.8 Assists 16.0 21st
151st 11.6 Turnovers 8.0 1st

Duke vs Virginia Prediction & Pick

Despite being the higher seed and the higher-ranked team in the country, Duke comes into this one as a 2.5-point favorite. Jon Scheyer has his team playing its best ball at the right time in his first season as the coach after Coach K. Coming off a big win over the tournament's No. 1 seed Miami Hurricanes, Duke has all the confidence in the world, and its talent is really shining through.

This isn't the defensive powerhouse Virginia has been in recent years, they're only ranked slightly ahead of Duke in defensive efficiency, but the Blue Devils hold the advantage in offensive efficiency. Virginia won the only previous meeting between these two earlier this season, but it took overtime and a controversial blown call to make it happen.

Duke is playing as well as any team in the nation this past week, and I expect them to cut down the nets on the backs of Kyle Filipowski, Dariq Whitehead and Jeremy Roach.

Prediction: Duke 72 | Virginia 67

Duke vs Virginia Best Bet

The Duke Blue Devils score 36.5 points per game in the first half. Virginia only score 31.7 points on average in the first half, which ranks No. 253 in the nation. Moral of the story, Virginia struggles coming out of the gate hot. Even in these teams last matchup, which Duke ultimately lost, the Blue Devils went into the locker room with a two-point halftime lead.

Considering how well Duke is playing of late, and that the halftime spread is just 1.5 points, when Duke covers that number in both their season average and their last head-to-head matchup, there's soem value to bve had there. Duke is coming off beating the Tournament's No. 1 seed, expect them to start out hot with a ton of confidence.

Bet: Duke First Half Spread -1.5 (-102)

David Kaestle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, David also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username davekaestle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.